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<p>Cities pursuing nature-based solutions to mitigate heatwaves need tools to estimate cooling benefits from increased tree canopy cover. This study applied the i-Tree Cool Air model and a heatwave degree day (HW<sub>DD</sub>) metric to quantify reductions in heatwave severity if neighborhoods in 10 Italian cities achieved the recommended minimum 30% tree cover. The scenario focused on establishing functional urban forests, with additional canopy placed over permeable surfaces to enhance stormwater infiltration and evapotranspiration-based cooling. Despite dry summer conditions, the 30% tree cover scenario reduced HW<sub>DD</sub> by a median of 34% (range: 16–84%), translating into comparable reductions (median 36%) in heatwave-related mortality for those aged 65 + . The tree cover generated new ecosystem service benefits valued at $10 million per city (range: $2–$62 million) through avoided stormwater runoff, air pollution removal, and carbon sequestration. Results consider drought constraints and potential irrigation trade-offs, including exacerbation of humid heat extremes.</p>

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Neighborhood-scale reductions in heatwave burden projected under a 30% minimum tree cover scenario

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月3日

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  • Theodore A. Endreny,
  • Marco Ciolfi,
  • Anna Endreny,
  • Francesca Chiocchini,
  • Carlo Calfapietra

摘要

Cities pursuing nature-based solutions to mitigate heatwaves need tools to estimate cooling benefits from increased tree canopy cover. This study applied the i-Tree Cool Air model and a heatwave degree day (HWDD) metric to quantify reductions in heatwave severity if neighborhoods in 10 Italian cities achieved the recommended minimum 30% tree cover. The scenario focused on establishing functional urban forests, with additional canopy placed over permeable surfaces to enhance stormwater infiltration and evapotranspiration-based cooling. Despite dry summer conditions, the 30% tree cover scenario reduced HWDD by a median of 34% (range: 16–84%), translating into comparable reductions (median 36%) in heatwave-related mortality for those aged 65 + . The tree cover generated new ecosystem service benefits valued at $10 million per city (range: $2–$62 million) through avoided stormwater runoff, air pollution removal, and carbon sequestration. Results consider drought constraints and potential irrigation trade-offs, including exacerbation of humid heat extremes.