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<p>The global energy transition depends on solar photovoltaic (PV) power displacing fossil fuels to deliver projected climate and air quality benefits. However, aerosol pollution from co-located coal plants actively suppresses PV energy production. Here a global, facility-level dataset shows that aerosols reduced global PV generation by 5.8% in 2023 (111 TWh). From 2017 to 2023, annual aerosol-induced PV energy losses from existing systems were, on average, equivalent to one-third of the energy added by new PV installations. In China, aerosols caused the largest PV energy losses worldwide, reducing national PV generation by 7.7% in 2023. The corresponding annual loss-to-growth ratio averaged 38% and frequently exceeded 50%. Despite continued coal expansion, PV energy losses have declined by 1.4% yr<sup>−1</sup> since 2017 owing to stricter emission controls. By contrast, the USA, where co-location of solar and coal plants is limited, experienced only 3.1% aerosol-induced PV loss. Given the slow pace of global coal phase-out, these results reveal a constraint on solar performance that, if unaccounted for, could lead to a systematic overestimation of the transition’s contribution to climate and air quality goals.</p>

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Coal plants persist as a large barrier to the global solar energy transition

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月15日

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  • Rui Song,
  • Feng Yin,
  • Jan-Peter Muller,
  • Adam C. Povey,
  • Basudev Swain,
  • Chenchen Huang,
  • Roy G. Grainger

摘要

The global energy transition depends on solar photovoltaic (PV) power displacing fossil fuels to deliver projected climate and air quality benefits. However, aerosol pollution from co-located coal plants actively suppresses PV energy production. Here a global, facility-level dataset shows that aerosols reduced global PV generation by 5.8% in 2023 (111 TWh). From 2017 to 2023, annual aerosol-induced PV energy losses from existing systems were, on average, equivalent to one-third of the energy added by new PV installations. In China, aerosols caused the largest PV energy losses worldwide, reducing national PV generation by 7.7% in 2023. The corresponding annual loss-to-growth ratio averaged 38% and frequently exceeded 50%. Despite continued coal expansion, PV energy losses have declined by 1.4% yr−1 since 2017 owing to stricter emission controls. By contrast, the USA, where co-location of solar and coal plants is limited, experienced only 3.1% aerosol-induced PV loss. Given the slow pace of global coal phase-out, these results reveal a constraint on solar performance that, if unaccounted for, could lead to a systematic overestimation of the transition’s contribution to climate and air quality goals.