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<p>With global temperatures poised to exceed the 1.5 °C Paris Agreement threshold—a level that triggered substantial ice-sheet collapse during the Last Interglacial—low-elevation coastal zones face sea-level commitments far beyond current planning horizons. With this geological frame of reference, we examine the impact of sea-level rise on what may be the most physically vulnerable coastal zone in the world using prehistoric and contemporary patterns of human mobility. We highlight the positive aspects of the recently commenced out-migration in this region and argue that the fate of communities landwards of this coastal zone will be decided in the next few decades.</p>

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Climate-driven depopulation and adaptation realities in America’s coastal ground zero

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月4日

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  • Torbjörn E. Törnqvist,
  • Brianna Castro,
  • Jesse M. Keenan,
  • Jayur M. Mehta,
  • Zhixiong Shen

摘要

With global temperatures poised to exceed the 1.5 °C Paris Agreement threshold—a level that triggered substantial ice-sheet collapse during the Last Interglacial—low-elevation coastal zones face sea-level commitments far beyond current planning horizons. With this geological frame of reference, we examine the impact of sea-level rise on what may be the most physically vulnerable coastal zone in the world using prehistoric and contemporary patterns of human mobility. We highlight the positive aspects of the recently commenced out-migration in this region and argue that the fate of communities landwards of this coastal zone will be decided in the next few decades.