<p>Global trade underpins sustainable development by linking water, energy and food across distant regions, yet how it reshapes transboundary synergies and trade-offs within this nexus remains poorly understood. Here, by constructing water–energy–food (WEF) networks that integrate cross-border resource flows, we quantify trade-driven changes in the WEF nexus, contrasting actual trade with counterfactual no-trade scenarios. We find that trade has a dual impact on the WEF nexus, fostering cooperative gains while reinforcing cross-country disparities. High-income countries achieve stronger WEF synergies that promote balanced gains in water, energy and food security, whereas low- and lower-middle-income countries experience greater trade-offs characterized by intensified resource competition. Trade deepens cross-regional imbalances, with Europe and North America strengthening internal coordination and acting as connectors for cross-regional synergies, while Central and South Asia exhibit intensified WEF trade-offs both within and across regions. Food-centred competition over water and energy use drives nexus trade-offs, with factors including tariff barriers, economic expansion and logistics connectivity reinforcing this competition. Our findings suggest that countries can complement existing goal- and country-specific actions with stronger cross-border coordination to reduce WEF nexus inequalities in support of 2030 targets and aspirations towards 2045.</p>

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The dual impact of trade on the water–energy–food nexus globally

  • Caichun Yin,
  • Wenwu Zhao,
  • Bojie Fu,
  • Paulo Pereira,
  • Michael E. Meadows,
  • Jingyi Ding,
  • Jianguo Liu

摘要

Global trade underpins sustainable development by linking water, energy and food across distant regions, yet how it reshapes transboundary synergies and trade-offs within this nexus remains poorly understood. Here, by constructing water–energy–food (WEF) networks that integrate cross-border resource flows, we quantify trade-driven changes in the WEF nexus, contrasting actual trade with counterfactual no-trade scenarios. We find that trade has a dual impact on the WEF nexus, fostering cooperative gains while reinforcing cross-country disparities. High-income countries achieve stronger WEF synergies that promote balanced gains in water, energy and food security, whereas low- and lower-middle-income countries experience greater trade-offs characterized by intensified resource competition. Trade deepens cross-regional imbalances, with Europe and North America strengthening internal coordination and acting as connectors for cross-regional synergies, while Central and South Asia exhibit intensified WEF trade-offs both within and across regions. Food-centred competition over water and energy use drives nexus trade-offs, with factors including tariff barriers, economic expansion and logistics connectivity reinforcing this competition. Our findings suggest that countries can complement existing goal- and country-specific actions with stronger cross-border coordination to reduce WEF nexus inequalities in support of 2030 targets and aspirations towards 2045.