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<p>El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mainly influences the North Atlantic and European (NAE) climate through its teleconnection with the North Atlantic Oscillation. A strengthening of this teleconnection has been found under greenhouse warming, but its evolution across the seasonal cycle, its interplay with other tropical ocean basins, and its impacts on NAE predictability in future scenarios remain unclear. Using CMIP6 models, we show that this teleconnection intensifies and expands eastward under greenhouse warming scenarios, being robust in late winter and spring, systematically increasing potential predictability. In late winter, jet stream changes expand the predictable regions, while amplified ENSO amplitude and equatorial rainfall increase the magnitude of skill. Conversely, spring potential predictability is associated with changes in ENSO variability combined with a plausible enhancement of Tropical North Atlantic influence. These results provide multimodel evidence that greenhouse warming enhances ENSO-driven NAE potential predictability, with implications for climate adaptation in the region.</p>

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Enhanced ENSO-driven potential predictability over the Euro-Atlantic under greenhouse warming

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月17日

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  • David Santuy,
  • Irene Polo,
  • Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca

摘要

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mainly influences the North Atlantic and European (NAE) climate through its teleconnection with the North Atlantic Oscillation. A strengthening of this teleconnection has been found under greenhouse warming, but its evolution across the seasonal cycle, its interplay with other tropical ocean basins, and its impacts on NAE predictability in future scenarios remain unclear. Using CMIP6 models, we show that this teleconnection intensifies and expands eastward under greenhouse warming scenarios, being robust in late winter and spring, systematically increasing potential predictability. In late winter, jet stream changes expand the predictable regions, while amplified ENSO amplitude and equatorial rainfall increase the magnitude of skill. Conversely, spring potential predictability is associated with changes in ENSO variability combined with a plausible enhancement of Tropical North Atlantic influence. These results provide multimodel evidence that greenhouse warming enhances ENSO-driven NAE potential predictability, with implications for climate adaptation in the region.