Scholarlink

<p>Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most destructive natural disasters. It is important to document long-term changes in TC properties to better prepare for the damages associated with TCs. TC lifespan is one of the little-studied TC characteristics. Here we show that annual mean TC duration has been decreasing at rates of -13 ± 6 and -7 ± 6 hours per decade, corresponding to approximately 56 and 30 h shorter average lifespans, in the Northeast and Northwest Pacific, respectively, from 1982 to 2024. The decreasing trend is primarily due to shorter TC tracks associated with poleward migration of TC genesis latitude. The TC intensification (weakening) rate before (after) the first (last) lifetime maximum intensity has increased, a phenomenon in which environmental conditions and internal convective structure may both play a role. The shorter TC lifespan over the open ocean before entering coastal zones compresses the time available for weather forecasting and disaster preparedness.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

A significant drop in tropical cyclones’ lifespan in the Pacific over the past 40 years

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月4日

查看全文
  • Kuilin Zhu,
  • Hui Su,
  • Chengxing Zhai

摘要

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most destructive natural disasters. It is important to document long-term changes in TC properties to better prepare for the damages associated with TCs. TC lifespan is one of the little-studied TC characteristics. Here we show that annual mean TC duration has been decreasing at rates of -13 ± 6 and -7 ± 6 hours per decade, corresponding to approximately 56 and 30 h shorter average lifespans, in the Northeast and Northwest Pacific, respectively, from 1982 to 2024. The decreasing trend is primarily due to shorter TC tracks associated with poleward migration of TC genesis latitude. The TC intensification (weakening) rate before (after) the first (last) lifetime maximum intensity has increased, a phenomenon in which environmental conditions and internal convective structure may both play a role. The shorter TC lifespan over the open ocean before entering coastal zones compresses the time available for weather forecasting and disaster preparedness.