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<p>Tornado outbreaks, involving multiple destructive tornadoes in close succession, result from interactions between large-scale atmospheric patterns and mesoscale dynamics. With a warming climate altering atmospheric behavior, the frequency and distribution of outbreak-favorable patterns may change, influencing future risks. Building on our recently introduced methodology for identifying tornado outbreak-favorable atmospheric patterns in a global climate model, we apply the method to future projections (2065–2099) across four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways using the MPI-ESM1-2-HR model. Focusing on May tornado outbreaks in the United States, we find that outbreak-supportive patterns exhibit scenario-dependent variability in frequency and a tendency toward northward and eastward expansion, beyond their historical geographic focus in the Great Plains and southeastern United States. This application demonstrates how a dual-variable, threshold-based method can be applied to global climate model projections to investigate event-specific extremes, offering a pathway for assessing risks of severe convective hazards under a warming climate.</p>

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Projecting May tornado outbreak patterns in a warming climate

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月16日

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  • Paulina Ćwik,
  • Renee A. McPherson,
  • Funing Li,
  • Jason C. Furtado,
  • Harold E. Brooks,
  • Hugo K. Lee

摘要

Tornado outbreaks, involving multiple destructive tornadoes in close succession, result from interactions between large-scale atmospheric patterns and mesoscale dynamics. With a warming climate altering atmospheric behavior, the frequency and distribution of outbreak-favorable patterns may change, influencing future risks. Building on our recently introduced methodology for identifying tornado outbreak-favorable atmospheric patterns in a global climate model, we apply the method to future projections (2065–2099) across four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways using the MPI-ESM1-2-HR model. Focusing on May tornado outbreaks in the United States, we find that outbreak-supportive patterns exhibit scenario-dependent variability in frequency and a tendency toward northward and eastward expansion, beyond their historical geographic focus in the Great Plains and southeastern United States. This application demonstrates how a dual-variable, threshold-based method can be applied to global climate model projections to investigate event-specific extremes, offering a pathway for assessing risks of severe convective hazards under a warming climate.