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<p>The role of the stratosphere for decadal surface cooling in subpolar and midlatitude Eurasia over the last few decades despite Arctic amplification is isolated using two sets of simulations in four different coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. In the first set, the stratosphere is nudged to observations (NUDGED) while allowing for the rest of the atmosphere to evolve freely, while in the second set the ocean-atmosphere system is free-running (FREE) and the stratospheric polar vortex does not exhibit long term trends. By comparing NUDGED to FREE, we attribute to the stratosphere the anomalously cold conditions in the 2000s in high latitude Eurasia, and also the contemporaneous warm conditions in Eastern Canada. Furthermore, anomalously rainy conditions in much of Southern Europe in the 2000s can also be largely attributed to the stratosphere. This cold Eurasia fingerprint from the stratosphere overwhelmed or strongly suppressed the forced signal from anthropogenic emissions in all four models, demonstrating the crucial role the stratosphere has for decadal surface-climate variability even in a warming climate.</p>

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Attributing surface climate impacts to decadal variability of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月20日

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  • Chaim I. Garfinkel,
  • Amy H. Butler,
  • Alexey Yu. Karpechko,
  • Judah Cohen,
  • Pu Lin,
  • Alexis Mariaccia,
  • Isla R. Simpson,
  • Clara Orbe,
  • Qi Tang,
  • Jacob Shpund,
  • Wuhan Ning

摘要

The role of the stratosphere for decadal surface cooling in subpolar and midlatitude Eurasia over the last few decades despite Arctic amplification is isolated using two sets of simulations in four different coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. In the first set, the stratosphere is nudged to observations (NUDGED) while allowing for the rest of the atmosphere to evolve freely, while in the second set the ocean-atmosphere system is free-running (FREE) and the stratospheric polar vortex does not exhibit long term trends. By comparing NUDGED to FREE, we attribute to the stratosphere the anomalously cold conditions in the 2000s in high latitude Eurasia, and also the contemporaneous warm conditions in Eastern Canada. Furthermore, anomalously rainy conditions in much of Southern Europe in the 2000s can also be largely attributed to the stratosphere. This cold Eurasia fingerprint from the stratosphere overwhelmed or strongly suppressed the forced signal from anthropogenic emissions in all four models, demonstrating the crucial role the stratosphere has for decadal surface-climate variability even in a warming climate.