Scholarlink

<p>Time of emergence (ToE) – the time when climate change signals become distinguishable from natural variations – offers key insight into when climate impacts will become noticeable. Under the SSP585 scenario, ToE of strengthened El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections to surface air temperature anomalies (TAS) over tropical rainforests and the Sahel transition zone (including northern South America, central and western Africa and Southeast Asia) in CMIP6 models appears notably earlier than other regions – as early as in the 2040s. ENSO-related precipitation anomalies in the deep tropics also emerge early in around the same period. These changing patterns are associated with a strengthened anomalous Walker Circulation in future ENSO and more robust ENSO TAS responses to global warming over the tropical rainforests/transition zone. It is found that Earth System models incorporating more comprehensive vegetation representation exhibit stronger responses in these areas and earlier ENSO TAS ToEs than models with limited vegetation feedbacks. This suggests that the early emergence of ENSO TAS teleconnections there can be attributed to atmosphere-land-vegetation feedbacks which amplify ENSO TAS responses. Our findings indicate that a strengthened relationship between ENSO and tropical rainforests and the Sahel transition zone could emerge in the coming decades.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Early emergence of climate change in tropical rainforest temperature variability due to ENSO

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月2日

查看全文
  • Kei Yiu LAI,
  • Chi-Yung TAM,
  • Matthew COLLINS,
  • Jun YING

摘要

Time of emergence (ToE) – the time when climate change signals become distinguishable from natural variations – offers key insight into when climate impacts will become noticeable. Under the SSP585 scenario, ToE of strengthened El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections to surface air temperature anomalies (TAS) over tropical rainforests and the Sahel transition zone (including northern South America, central and western Africa and Southeast Asia) in CMIP6 models appears notably earlier than other regions – as early as in the 2040s. ENSO-related precipitation anomalies in the deep tropics also emerge early in around the same period. These changing patterns are associated with a strengthened anomalous Walker Circulation in future ENSO and more robust ENSO TAS responses to global warming over the tropical rainforests/transition zone. It is found that Earth System models incorporating more comprehensive vegetation representation exhibit stronger responses in these areas and earlier ENSO TAS ToEs than models with limited vegetation feedbacks. This suggests that the early emergence of ENSO TAS teleconnections there can be attributed to atmosphere-land-vegetation feedbacks which amplify ENSO TAS responses. Our findings indicate that a strengthened relationship between ENSO and tropical rainforests and the Sahel transition zone could emerge in the coming decades.