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<p>Emissions from land-based transport, aviation, and shipping contribute significantly to climate change. Besides CO<sub>2</sub>, these emissions include short-lived compounds that affect air quality but are also climatically relevant. We use a global chemistry-climate model to show that the climate effects of these non-CO<sub>2</sub> emissions are substantial across all transport sectors both now and in the future. In sum, the non-CO<sub>2</sub> impacts result in a cooling, which offsets the positive climate forcing from transport-induced CO<sub>2</sub> by around 80% at present and between 25 and 60% in different scenarios for 2050. The trade-off that air pollutants mitigate global warming is strongly reduced in a future scenario with low anthropogenic emissions, where even small remaining amounts of non-CO<sub>2</sub> compounds cause significant cooling as they are released in a very clean atmosphere. Our findings emphasize the need to take non-CO<sub>2</sub> effects into account when assessing climate protection strategies for the transport sectors.</p>

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Large present-day and future climate forcing due to non-CO2 emissions from global transport

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月11日

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  • Johannes Hendricks,
  • Mattia Righi,
  • Sabine Brinkop,
  • Katrin Dahlmann,
  • Mariano Mertens,
  • Christof G. Beer,
  • Volker Grewe,
  • J. Christopher Kaiser,
  • Michael Ponater

摘要

Emissions from land-based transport, aviation, and shipping contribute significantly to climate change. Besides CO2, these emissions include short-lived compounds that affect air quality but are also climatically relevant. We use a global chemistry-climate model to show that the climate effects of these non-CO2 emissions are substantial across all transport sectors both now and in the future. In sum, the non-CO2 impacts result in a cooling, which offsets the positive climate forcing from transport-induced CO2 by around 80% at present and between 25 and 60% in different scenarios for 2050. The trade-off that air pollutants mitigate global warming is strongly reduced in a future scenario with low anthropogenic emissions, where even small remaining amounts of non-CO2 compounds cause significant cooling as they are released in a very clean atmosphere. Our findings emphasize the need to take non-CO2 effects into account when assessing climate protection strategies for the transport sectors.