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<p>Warming and extreme precipitation events frequently occur in the Asian summer monsoon during autumn, and their causes are still unclear. In this study, we investigate variations in the monsoon and autumn precipitation over the Indochina Peninsula (ICP) using reanalysis data, observational datasets, and ensemble simulations from the CMIP6 Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP). The results show that from 2005 to 2023, a delayed retreat of the ICP monsoon led to increased autumn precipitation. Arctic sea ice loss associated with Arctic amplification is identified as one of the primary forcing factors. Reduced Arctic sea ice influences the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the tripole sea surface temperature (SST) pattern, which in turn excite Rossby wave sources in the mid-latitude North Atlantic. The resulting wave train propagates from Western Europe to Asia, inducing an anomalous anticyclone extending from Asia to the Western Pacific and promoting a northward displacement of the South Asian High (SAH). This shift drives a northward movement of the East Asian Subtropical Jet (EASJ) and the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH). The SAH “pumping” enhances mid-tropospheric latent heat release and surface warming, strengthening the land–sea thermal contrast, thereby intensifying the monsoon circulation and delaying its retreat. These circulation changes enhance moisture convergence, increasing autumn precipitation over the ICP, highlighting the critical role of Arctic sea ice loss in modulating regional monsoon dynamics.</p>

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Arctic ice loss is delaying monsoon retreat over the Indochina Peninsula

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月17日

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  • Yilin Duo,
  • Jie Zhang

摘要

Warming and extreme precipitation events frequently occur in the Asian summer monsoon during autumn, and their causes are still unclear. In this study, we investigate variations in the monsoon and autumn precipitation over the Indochina Peninsula (ICP) using reanalysis data, observational datasets, and ensemble simulations from the CMIP6 Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP). The results show that from 2005 to 2023, a delayed retreat of the ICP monsoon led to increased autumn precipitation. Arctic sea ice loss associated with Arctic amplification is identified as one of the primary forcing factors. Reduced Arctic sea ice influences the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the tripole sea surface temperature (SST) pattern, which in turn excite Rossby wave sources in the mid-latitude North Atlantic. The resulting wave train propagates from Western Europe to Asia, inducing an anomalous anticyclone extending from Asia to the Western Pacific and promoting a northward displacement of the South Asian High (SAH). This shift drives a northward movement of the East Asian Subtropical Jet (EASJ) and the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH). The SAH “pumping” enhances mid-tropospheric latent heat release and surface warming, strengthening the land–sea thermal contrast, thereby intensifying the monsoon circulation and delaying its retreat. These circulation changes enhance moisture convergence, increasing autumn precipitation over the ICP, highlighting the critical role of Arctic sea ice loss in modulating regional monsoon dynamics.