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<p>The Eurasian winter cooling observed in the early 21st century, which contrasted with ongoing global warming, was initially attributed to Arctic warming until atmospheric internal variability became the prevailing explanation when the cooling ceased despite unabated Arctic warming. Yet the atmospheric variability responsible for it remains elusive. Here, three comparable cooling episodes, including the early 21st-century one, are identified in reanalysis since 1901. By synthesizing them with cooling episodes in large-ensemble simulations, we demonstrate two intrinsic atmospheric regimes as modulators: the Scandinavian pattern (SCAND) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The substantial positive SCAND trend strongly favors Eurasian cooling, with the NAO trend modifying cooling magnitude. Our logistic regression model indicates that the likelihood of at least one analogous cooling episode before 2050 is approximately 30% due to internal variability, with only half potentially overriding the anthropogenic warming. These findings provide important insights for energy security strategies for midlatitude Eurasian regions.</p>

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Atmospheric circulation regimes modulating Eurasian winter decadal cooling

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月22日

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  • Juncong Li,
  • Xiaodan Chen,
  • Zhiping Wen,
  • Shengping He,
  • Yuanyuan Guo,
  • Sihua Huang,
  • Yu Zhu

摘要

The Eurasian winter cooling observed in the early 21st century, which contrasted with ongoing global warming, was initially attributed to Arctic warming until atmospheric internal variability became the prevailing explanation when the cooling ceased despite unabated Arctic warming. Yet the atmospheric variability responsible for it remains elusive. Here, three comparable cooling episodes, including the early 21st-century one, are identified in reanalysis since 1901. By synthesizing them with cooling episodes in large-ensemble simulations, we demonstrate two intrinsic atmospheric regimes as modulators: the Scandinavian pattern (SCAND) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The substantial positive SCAND trend strongly favors Eurasian cooling, with the NAO trend modifying cooling magnitude. Our logistic regression model indicates that the likelihood of at least one analogous cooling episode before 2050 is approximately 30% due to internal variability, with only half potentially overriding the anthropogenic warming. These findings provide important insights for energy security strategies for midlatitude Eurasian regions.