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<p>While the potential intensity (PI) theory provides a foundation for projecting future tropical cyclone (TC) intensity, uncertainties remain regarding how future TC maximum intensity will change due to potential offsets from interaction between TCs and their ambient environment. Using high-resolution downscaling simulations based on future scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phases 5 and 6, this study examines the relative influence of local environment along TC tracks and large-scale atmospheric conditions on TC lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) in future projections. Analyzing TC intensity distributions for the final two decades of the 21st century in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin shows that the LMI increases in all future scenarios in this basin, despite less favorable local conditions along TC tracks. This increase in LMI is driven by a rise in the occurrence of long-lived TCs and a decline in short-lived TCs, enabling more TCs to reach higher intensities during their lifetime even as local environments become more hostile to TC development in warmer climates. The mechanism behind this LMI increase is linked to a northeastward shift in the Western Pacific Subtropical High, which alters TC track patterns in the WNP basin. These findings highlight the critical role of large-scale environment in TC intensity projections, underscoring the need to move beyond basin-wide PI analyses when assessing future TC activity.</p>

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Environmental controls on future projections of western North Pacific tropical cyclone maximum intensity

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月30日

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  • Chanh Kieu,
  • Suzana J. Camargo,
  • Hue Nguyen

摘要

While the potential intensity (PI) theory provides a foundation for projecting future tropical cyclone (TC) intensity, uncertainties remain regarding how future TC maximum intensity will change due to potential offsets from interaction between TCs and their ambient environment. Using high-resolution downscaling simulations based on future scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phases 5 and 6, this study examines the relative influence of local environment along TC tracks and large-scale atmospheric conditions on TC lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) in future projections. Analyzing TC intensity distributions for the final two decades of the 21st century in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin shows that the LMI increases in all future scenarios in this basin, despite less favorable local conditions along TC tracks. This increase in LMI is driven by a rise in the occurrence of long-lived TCs and a decline in short-lived TCs, enabling more TCs to reach higher intensities during their lifetime even as local environments become more hostile to TC development in warmer climates. The mechanism behind this LMI increase is linked to a northeastward shift in the Western Pacific Subtropical High, which alters TC track patterns in the WNP basin. These findings highlight the critical role of large-scale environment in TC intensity projections, underscoring the need to move beyond basin-wide PI analyses when assessing future TC activity.