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<p>The potential for Arctic sea-ice loss, particularly in the Barents-Kara Seas, to induce Eurasian winter cooling remains contentious. Despite a significant correlation between Barents-Kara-Seas sea-ice loss and Eurasian winter cooling in observations, modeling studies suggest minimal causal influence. Through constraining Barents-Kara-Seas sea-ice to different states in ocean-atmosphere-coupled simulations, here we show that ocean-atmosphere coupling enhances the Eurasian cooling induced by historical sea-ice loss, though still weaker than observed, likely due to internal variability and confounding factors. Historical sea-ice loss induces stronger and deeper Arctic warming with ocean-atmosphere coupling than without, associated with a strengthened Siberian High and East Asian Trough, which promotes Eurasian cooling. However, ocean-atmosphere coupling has little influence on the Eurasian cooling response to projected end-of-the-twenty-first-century sea-ice loss. The Eurasian temperature response to historical sea-ice loss is dominated by dynamically-induced cooling, whereas strong thermodynamical warming masks dynamically-induced cooling in response to far-future sea-ice loss.</p>

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Ocean-atmosphere coupling enhances Eurasian cooling in response to historical Barents-Kara sea-ice loss

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月29日

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  • Mian Xu,
  • Shichang Kang,
  • James A. Screen,
  • Alexandre Audette,
  • Wenshou Tian,
  • Jiankai Zhang,
  • Hao Yu,
  • Han Zhang

摘要

The potential for Arctic sea-ice loss, particularly in the Barents-Kara Seas, to induce Eurasian winter cooling remains contentious. Despite a significant correlation between Barents-Kara-Seas sea-ice loss and Eurasian winter cooling in observations, modeling studies suggest minimal causal influence. Through constraining Barents-Kara-Seas sea-ice to different states in ocean-atmosphere-coupled simulations, here we show that ocean-atmosphere coupling enhances the Eurasian cooling induced by historical sea-ice loss, though still weaker than observed, likely due to internal variability and confounding factors. Historical sea-ice loss induces stronger and deeper Arctic warming with ocean-atmosphere coupling than without, associated with a strengthened Siberian High and East Asian Trough, which promotes Eurasian cooling. However, ocean-atmosphere coupling has little influence on the Eurasian cooling response to projected end-of-the-twenty-first-century sea-ice loss. The Eurasian temperature response to historical sea-ice loss is dominated by dynamically-induced cooling, whereas strong thermodynamical warming masks dynamically-induced cooling in response to far-future sea-ice loss.