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<p>Volcanic eruptions are among the strongest climate drivers, yet their regional impacts on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) remain poorly constrained. Post-eruption amplified winter cooling in MENA is often attributed to a volcanically forced positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), but the concurrent occurrence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) complicates attribution. Furthermore, summer climatic responses, including tropical warming and mid-latitude cooling, remain underexplored. Here, we present a pioneering research using a high-top coupled climate model (MIROC6) to assess volcanic-induced ENSO–NAO interactions and their regional climate impacts. We demonstrate that volcanic-induced NAO variability is the primary driver of post-eruption MENA winter cooling, with El Niño acting as a modulator rather than a fundamental trigger. We further reveal distinct summer climate anomalies, including suppressed precipitation over the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). These findings underscore the importance of high-top models to resolve stratospheric influences on post-volcanic climate variability.</p>

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Tropical volcanic impacts on MENA climate via ENSO and NAO dynamics in a high-top model

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月29日

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  • Muhammad Mubashar Dogar,
  • Shingo Watanabe,
  • Masatomo Fujiwara,
  • Muhammad Adnan Abid,
  • Turki M. Habeebullah,
  • Basit Khan

摘要

Volcanic eruptions are among the strongest climate drivers, yet their regional impacts on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) remain poorly constrained. Post-eruption amplified winter cooling in MENA is often attributed to a volcanically forced positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), but the concurrent occurrence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) complicates attribution. Furthermore, summer climatic responses, including tropical warming and mid-latitude cooling, remain underexplored. Here, we present a pioneering research using a high-top coupled climate model (MIROC6) to assess volcanic-induced ENSO–NAO interactions and their regional climate impacts. We demonstrate that volcanic-induced NAO variability is the primary driver of post-eruption MENA winter cooling, with El Niño acting as a modulator rather than a fundamental trigger. We further reveal distinct summer climate anomalies, including suppressed precipitation over the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). These findings underscore the importance of high-top models to resolve stratospheric influences on post-volcanic climate variability.