Scholarlink

<p>Northwestern China (NWC) has a monsoon-like, arid and semi-arid climate with considerable decadal variability and long-term trends. Decadal prediction of summer precipitation remains challenging due to the mixed influence of external forcing and internal variability. This study shows that the decadal internal variability of domain-averaged summer precipitation over NWC (NWCP) primarily originates from the extratropical North Atlantic dipole (NAD) sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), which excite a Eurasian Rossby wave train by enhancing the transient eddy forcing. The resultant anomalous Mongolian cyclone increases the NWCP through the cyclonic vorticity-generated upward moisture transport. By combining this empirical relationship and dynamical models’ predicted NAD SSTA, we attempted a hybrid dynamic-empirical model to predict the decadal internal variability component. After adding the external forcing component, the model can predict the decadal NWCP 7–10 years in advance. Our result opens a pathway for decadal prediction of precipitation in central Eurasia’s dry regions.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Decadal predictability of summer precipitation in Northwestern China originated from the North Atlantic Ocean

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月19日

查看全文
  • Yuhang Xiang,
  • Juan Li,
  • Bin Wang,
  • Zhiwei Zhu

摘要

Northwestern China (NWC) has a monsoon-like, arid and semi-arid climate with considerable decadal variability and long-term trends. Decadal prediction of summer precipitation remains challenging due to the mixed influence of external forcing and internal variability. This study shows that the decadal internal variability of domain-averaged summer precipitation over NWC (NWCP) primarily originates from the extratropical North Atlantic dipole (NAD) sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), which excite a Eurasian Rossby wave train by enhancing the transient eddy forcing. The resultant anomalous Mongolian cyclone increases the NWCP through the cyclonic vorticity-generated upward moisture transport. By combining this empirical relationship and dynamical models’ predicted NAD SSTA, we attempted a hybrid dynamic-empirical model to predict the decadal internal variability component. After adding the external forcing component, the model can predict the decadal NWCP 7–10 years in advance. Our result opens a pathway for decadal prediction of precipitation in central Eurasia’s dry regions.