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<p>The impact of global warming on future tropical cyclone (TC) development is substantial; however, the predictability of TC genesis remains uncertain. In this study, we investigate projected changes in TC genesis on a regional scale over the North Atlantic (NA) and western North Pacific (WNP) ocean basins, focusing on TC seasonality through bias-corrected model simulations. Our study unveils a weakening of peak TC genesis (August-October; ASO) at lower latitudes under a high-emission scenario, along with a strengthening of TC peak (July-September; JAS) at higher latitudes. Most importantly, positive vertical velocity (ω) in the mid-troposphere (500 hPa) plays a dominant role in weakening the TC peak in the tropics, while weak vertical wind shear (VWS) in the subtropics facilitates TC development. Our study elucidates the impact of climate change on the regional environment and the ensuing possible changes in TC seasonality, offering essential insights into future projected TC genesis in the Northern Hemisphere.</p>

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Projected tropical cyclone genesis and seasonality changes in the Northern Hemisphere under a warming climate

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月31日

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  • Erandani Lakshani Widana Arachchige,
  • Wen Zhou,
  • Ralf Toumi,
  • Xuan Wang

摘要

The impact of global warming on future tropical cyclone (TC) development is substantial; however, the predictability of TC genesis remains uncertain. In this study, we investigate projected changes in TC genesis on a regional scale over the North Atlantic (NA) and western North Pacific (WNP) ocean basins, focusing on TC seasonality through bias-corrected model simulations. Our study unveils a weakening of peak TC genesis (August-October; ASO) at lower latitudes under a high-emission scenario, along with a strengthening of TC peak (July-September; JAS) at higher latitudes. Most importantly, positive vertical velocity (ω) in the mid-troposphere (500 hPa) plays a dominant role in weakening the TC peak in the tropics, while weak vertical wind shear (VWS) in the subtropics facilitates TC development. Our study elucidates the impact of climate change on the regional environment and the ensuing possible changes in TC seasonality, offering essential insights into future projected TC genesis in the Northern Hemisphere.