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<p>The likelihood of intense heatwaves in South Asia is increasing due to climate change, highlighting the need to understand their evolving spatiotemporal patterns. Using a complex network-based approach, we analyze synchronous extreme heat events across South and West Asia over three 30-year periods: two historical phases (1960–1989, 1990–2019) and a near-future projection (2020–2049) under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. Our findings reveal a shift in heatwave synchronization from western and central Asia before 1990 towards Pakistan, northwest India, and the southwestern Tibetan Plateau by the mid-21st century. This shift is primarily driven by increased surface sensible heat flux, which enhances atmospheric diabatic heating and strengthens the early-summer circumglobal teleconnection. Additionally, atmospheric conditions over the North Atlantic-Greenland sector modulate South Asian heatwave synchronization. Our study provides novel insights into the evolving land-atmosphere interactions driving extreme heat events, with implications for heatwave predictability and risk assessment in a warming world.</p>

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Recent changes in spatiotemporal patterns of heat extremes in South Asia

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月5日

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  • Abhirup Banerjee,
  • Shraddha Gupta,
  • Pranava Priyanshu,
  • Ankan Kar,
  • Ruby Saha,
  • Tanujit Chakraborty,
  • Dibakar Ghosh,
  • Jürgen Kurths,
  • Chittaranjan Hens

摘要

The likelihood of intense heatwaves in South Asia is increasing due to climate change, highlighting the need to understand their evolving spatiotemporal patterns. Using a complex network-based approach, we analyze synchronous extreme heat events across South and West Asia over three 30-year periods: two historical phases (1960–1989, 1990–2019) and a near-future projection (2020–2049) under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. Our findings reveal a shift in heatwave synchronization from western and central Asia before 1990 towards Pakistan, northwest India, and the southwestern Tibetan Plateau by the mid-21st century. This shift is primarily driven by increased surface sensible heat flux, which enhances atmospheric diabatic heating and strengthens the early-summer circumglobal teleconnection. Additionally, atmospheric conditions over the North Atlantic-Greenland sector modulate South Asian heatwave synchronization. Our study provides novel insights into the evolving land-atmosphere interactions driving extreme heat events, with implications for heatwave predictability and risk assessment in a warming world.