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<p>AI-based weather and climate models are emerging as accurate and computationally efficient tools. Beyond weather forecasting, they also show promise to accelerate storyline analyses. We evaluate NeuralGCM’s ability to simulate an extreme heatwave against the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), a physics-based climate model. NeuralGCM accurately replicates the targeted event, and generates stable and realistic mid-century projections. However, due to the absence of land feedbacks, NeuralGCM underestimates the projected warming amplitude compared to physics-based model references.</p>

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Testing NeuralGCM's capability to simulate future heatwaves based on the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave event

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月1日

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  • Shiheng Duan,
  • Jishi Zhang,
  • Céline Bonfils,
  • Giuliana Pallotta

摘要

AI-based weather and climate models are emerging as accurate and computationally efficient tools. Beyond weather forecasting, they also show promise to accelerate storyline analyses. We evaluate NeuralGCM’s ability to simulate an extreme heatwave against the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), a physics-based climate model. NeuralGCM accurately replicates the targeted event, and generates stable and realistic mid-century projections. However, due to the absence of land feedbacks, NeuralGCM underestimates the projected warming amplitude compared to physics-based model references.