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<p>We investigate the drivers of projected summer precipitation changes and their uncertainties across Africa in the second half of the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios using CMIP6 models. Our results reveal distinct regional precipitation changes, particularly under SSP5-8.5, with robust increases of 75%, 24%, and 17% over the Sahara, South Eastern Africa, and South Central Africa, respectively, and a decline of up to 5% over West Southern Africa (WSAF). In most regions, precipitation increases are driven by enhanced vertical thermodynamic processes associated with temperature-induced moisture increases and enhanced moisture convergence. In contrast, the WSAF decrease is associated with vertical dynamic processes driven by a weakening of the Hadley circulation’s ascending branch. Model uncertainty accounts for over 85% of total projection uncertainty across all regions and is largely due to subgrid-scale parameterizations. Overall, this study enhances our understanding of climate change impacts on African precipitation.</p>

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Understanding drivers and uncertainty in projected African precipitation

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月17日

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  • Thierry N. Taguela,
  • Akintomide A. Akinsanola,
  • Tolulope E. Adeliyi,
  • Alan Rhoades,
  • Robert H. Nazarian

摘要

We investigate the drivers of projected summer precipitation changes and their uncertainties across Africa in the second half of the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios using CMIP6 models. Our results reveal distinct regional precipitation changes, particularly under SSP5-8.5, with robust increases of 75%, 24%, and 17% over the Sahara, South Eastern Africa, and South Central Africa, respectively, and a decline of up to 5% over West Southern Africa (WSAF). In most regions, precipitation increases are driven by enhanced vertical thermodynamic processes associated with temperature-induced moisture increases and enhanced moisture convergence. In contrast, the WSAF decrease is associated with vertical dynamic processes driven by a weakening of the Hadley circulation’s ascending branch. Model uncertainty accounts for over 85% of total projection uncertainty across all regions and is largely due to subgrid-scale parameterizations. Overall, this study enhances our understanding of climate change impacts on African precipitation.