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<p>How the shape characterization of the concentration-response relationships between particulate matter (PM) and all-cause mortality influences life expectancy (LE) gains remains unclear. Based on the Pearl River Cohort, the 2021 World Health Organization air quality guidelines, and an integrated comparative risk assessment framework, we identified sigmodal relationships between PM<sub>2.5</sub>, all-cause mortality, and LE reduction. A 10-unit increase in PM<sub>2.5</sub> was associated with an excess mortality risk of 31.2% (95% uncertainty interval: 27.6–35.0%). Reducing PM<sub>2.5</sub> to the guideline threshold of 5 μg/m<sup>3</sup> could prevent 0.193 (0.175–0.212) million deaths, contributing to a 4.07–year (3.60–4.52) average LE gain. In contrast, PM<sub>2.5</sub> reductions by 5.6% and 10% resulted in smaller LE gains of 0.33 (0.28–0.38) and 0.58 (0.49–0.67) years, respectively. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for the nonlinear relationship in air pollution control and provide essential incentives for tailoring sustainable plans to enhance population longevity.</p>

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Health impact assessment on life expectancy gains ascribed to particulate matter reduction

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年2月22日

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  • Xiao Lin,
  • Richard T. Burnett,
  • Junyan Xi,
  • Jianjun Bai,
  • Yining Xiang,
  • Tian Tian,
  • Zhiqiang Li,
  • Shimin Chen,
  • Jie Jiang,
  • Weihua Hu,
  • Xiaowen Wang,
  • Ying Wang,
  • Zhicheng Du,
  • Wangjian Zhang,
  • Yuantao Hao

摘要

How the shape characterization of the concentration-response relationships between particulate matter (PM) and all-cause mortality influences life expectancy (LE) gains remains unclear. Based on the Pearl River Cohort, the 2021 World Health Organization air quality guidelines, and an integrated comparative risk assessment framework, we identified sigmodal relationships between PM2.5, all-cause mortality, and LE reduction. A 10-unit increase in PM2.5 was associated with an excess mortality risk of 31.2% (95% uncertainty interval: 27.6–35.0%). Reducing PM2.5 to the guideline threshold of 5 μg/m3 could prevent 0.193 (0.175–0.212) million deaths, contributing to a 4.07–year (3.60–4.52) average LE gain. In contrast, PM2.5 reductions by 5.6% and 10% resulted in smaller LE gains of 0.33 (0.28–0.38) and 0.58 (0.49–0.67) years, respectively. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for the nonlinear relationship in air pollution control and provide essential incentives for tailoring sustainable plans to enhance population longevity.