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<p>The hurricane, with maximum wind speed over 64 kts, is among the most terrible calamities over the northern Atlantic (NATL). Previous studies identified a poleward migration of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the Pacific Ocean, but the shift over the NATL is statistically insignificant. The present study detects a robust southward migration in the genesis latitude of NATL TCs that later reach hurricane strength after 1979, which is consistent with a growth in hurricane frequency in the southern part (10°-20°N) of NATL. This increasing trend of hurricane frequency is intimately attributable to the decreasing vertical shear of zonal wind, resulting from a decreasing north-south temperature gradient. The reduced north-south temperature gradient is primarily caused by greater warming trend in tropospheric temperature in the subtropics, driven by intensified static stability. The present research suggests a potential increase in the hazards confronted by low-latitude islands and coastal nations in Northern America.</p>

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The southward shift of hurricane genesis over the northern Atlantic Ocean

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年1月30日

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  • Xi Cao,
  • Renguang Wu,
  • Xianling Jiang,
  • Yifeng Dai,
  • Pengfei Wang,
  • Lei Zhou,
  • Liang Wu,
  • Difei Deng,
  • Ying Sun,
  • Shangfeng Chen,
  • Kaiming Hu,
  • Zhibiao Wang,
  • Lu Liu,
  • Xiaoqing Lan,
  • Zhencai Du,
  • Junhu Zhao,
  • Xiao Xiao

摘要

The hurricane, with maximum wind speed over 64 kts, is among the most terrible calamities over the northern Atlantic (NATL). Previous studies identified a poleward migration of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the Pacific Ocean, but the shift over the NATL is statistically insignificant. The present study detects a robust southward migration in the genesis latitude of NATL TCs that later reach hurricane strength after 1979, which is consistent with a growth in hurricane frequency in the southern part (10°-20°N) of NATL. This increasing trend of hurricane frequency is intimately attributable to the decreasing vertical shear of zonal wind, resulting from a decreasing north-south temperature gradient. The reduced north-south temperature gradient is primarily caused by greater warming trend in tropospheric temperature in the subtropics, driven by intensified static stability. The present research suggests a potential increase in the hazards confronted by low-latitude islands and coastal nations in Northern America.