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<p><i>Bactrocera dorsalis</i> (Hendel) is the most economically important invasive fruit fly in sub-Saharan Africa, yet long-term evidence linking its seasonal dynamics to environmental drivers across altitudinal gradients remains limited. We analysed 279 site-month observations of male trap catches (flies per trap per day, FTD) collected between October 2004 and February 2012 at six sites spanning 526–1,650&#xa0;m along the Uluguru Mountain transect in Morogoro, Tanzania. Climatic variables (temperature, rainfall, relative humidity) were obtained from ERA5 reanalysis, and host fruit phenology was characterised for key commercial species. Abundance declined sharply with altitude, with mean FTD decreasing from 87.1 at the lowland site (Sokoine University of Agriculture [SUA], 526&#xa0;m) to 0.07 at the highest site (Nyandira, 1,650&#xa0;m), where 55% of months recorded zero catches. Seasonal peaks occurred during the warm–wet period (November–April), but their magnitude and duration declined with altitude, the high season shortening from seven months at SUA to three at Nyandira. Peaks also became less predictable upslope, with the coefficient of variation rising from 0.54 to 1.38. Relative humidity showed the strongest association with FTD (Spearman ρ = 0.202, <i>p</i> = 0.0007), whereas temperature showed no significant overall relationship. Host availability further shaped dynamics, with ripening of jew plum, mango and soursop linked to increased abundance, while citrus and loquat had minimal influence. Overall, variation in <i>B. dorsalis</i> abundance along the gradient was most strongly associated with altitude and host availability, whereas climatic variables showing weaker, context-dependent associations. These findings provide understanding of the factors associated with pest pressure and informing targeted management across heterogeneous East African landscapes.</p>

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Unravelling long-term temporal dynamics of the invasive fruit fly Bactrocera dorsalis along an altitudinal gradient in Morogoro, Eastern Tanzania

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年8月1日

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  • Maulid W. Mwatawala,
  • Joseph O. Ruboha,
  • Jackline Bakengesa,
  • Mwajuma K. Zinga,
  • Marc De Meyer

摘要

Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) is the most economically important invasive fruit fly in sub-Saharan Africa, yet long-term evidence linking its seasonal dynamics to environmental drivers across altitudinal gradients remains limited. We analysed 279 site-month observations of male trap catches (flies per trap per day, FTD) collected between October 2004 and February 2012 at six sites spanning 526–1,650 m along the Uluguru Mountain transect in Morogoro, Tanzania. Climatic variables (temperature, rainfall, relative humidity) were obtained from ERA5 reanalysis, and host fruit phenology was characterised for key commercial species. Abundance declined sharply with altitude, with mean FTD decreasing from 87.1 at the lowland site (Sokoine University of Agriculture [SUA], 526 m) to 0.07 at the highest site (Nyandira, 1,650 m), where 55% of months recorded zero catches. Seasonal peaks occurred during the warm–wet period (November–April), but their magnitude and duration declined with altitude, the high season shortening from seven months at SUA to three at Nyandira. Peaks also became less predictable upslope, with the coefficient of variation rising from 0.54 to 1.38. Relative humidity showed the strongest association with FTD (Spearman ρ = 0.202, p = 0.0007), whereas temperature showed no significant overall relationship. Host availability further shaped dynamics, with ripening of jew plum, mango and soursop linked to increased abundance, while citrus and loquat had minimal influence. Overall, variation in B. dorsalis abundance along the gradient was most strongly associated with altitude and host availability, whereas climatic variables showing weaker, context-dependent associations. These findings provide understanding of the factors associated with pest pressure and informing targeted management across heterogeneous East African landscapes.