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<p>Yellowfin tuna (<i>Thunnus albacares</i>) is a key component of the Indian Ocean tuna fishery, constituting approximately 25% of the total tuna catch in the region. However, persistent high-intensity fishing pressure has posed severe threats to its stock status. This study integrated length-frequency data and historical catch records of Indian Ocean yellowfin tuna to construct an integrated assessment workflow incorporating the fishboot, LBB (Length-Based Bayesian Biomass Estimation), and CMSY (Catch-Maximum Sustainable Yield) models. By sequentially propagating prior information across models, this workflow mitigates uncertainties inherent in single-model approaches—as evidenced by low prior-posterior variance ratios (PPVR) in the CMSY analysis, indicating substantial information gain from the data—and enables a comprehensive reconstruction of both current stock status and historical exploitation dynamics under data-limited conditions. The workflow was applied to systematically analyze long-term exploitation dynamics, current resource status, and identify critical overfishing risk phases along with their primary drivers. Results demonstrate that the rapid expansion of fishing effort and widespread adoption of highly efficient gears, particularly purse seine nets, are closely associated with resource changes. Assessments indicate that the Indian Ocean yellowfin tuna stock is currently overfished (<i>B</i>/<i>B</i><sub>msy</sub> = 0.79) and continues to experience excessive fishing pressure (<i>F</i>/<i>F</i><sub>msy</sub> = 1.41). The population decline is attributed to several factors: slow growth (<i>K</i> = 0.25 year⁻¹) leading to low reproductive resilience, continued use of non-selective gear resulting in high catches of immature individuals, and fishing intensity far exceeding sustainable levels. Key parameters estimated in this study–including optimal length at first capture (<i>L</i><sub>c_opt</sub>), biological reference points (<i>B</i>/<i>B</i><sub>msy</sub>, <i>F</i>/<i>F</i><sub>msy</sub>), and maximum sustainable yield (<i>MSY</i>)–provide a scientific basis for developing conservation and management strategies for Indian Ocean yellowfin tuna.</p>

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An integrated modelling approach for assessing stock status of data-limited Indian Ocean yellowfin tuna

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月31日

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  • Guoqing Zhao,
  • Hanfeng Zheng,
  • Lingzhi Li,
  • Jialiang Yang,
  • Peng Lian,
  • Ziniu Li,
  • Yong Yao,
  • Xiaolin Tang,
  • Chunlei Feng,
  • Ai Guo

摘要

Yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) is a key component of the Indian Ocean tuna fishery, constituting approximately 25% of the total tuna catch in the region. However, persistent high-intensity fishing pressure has posed severe threats to its stock status. This study integrated length-frequency data and historical catch records of Indian Ocean yellowfin tuna to construct an integrated assessment workflow incorporating the fishboot, LBB (Length-Based Bayesian Biomass Estimation), and CMSY (Catch-Maximum Sustainable Yield) models. By sequentially propagating prior information across models, this workflow mitigates uncertainties inherent in single-model approaches—as evidenced by low prior-posterior variance ratios (PPVR) in the CMSY analysis, indicating substantial information gain from the data—and enables a comprehensive reconstruction of both current stock status and historical exploitation dynamics under data-limited conditions. The workflow was applied to systematically analyze long-term exploitation dynamics, current resource status, and identify critical overfishing risk phases along with their primary drivers. Results demonstrate that the rapid expansion of fishing effort and widespread adoption of highly efficient gears, particularly purse seine nets, are closely associated with resource changes. Assessments indicate that the Indian Ocean yellowfin tuna stock is currently overfished (B/Bmsy = 0.79) and continues to experience excessive fishing pressure (F/Fmsy = 1.41). The population decline is attributed to several factors: slow growth (K = 0.25 year⁻¹) leading to low reproductive resilience, continued use of non-selective gear resulting in high catches of immature individuals, and fishing intensity far exceeding sustainable levels. Key parameters estimated in this study–including optimal length at first capture (Lc_opt), biological reference points (B/Bmsy, F/Fmsy), and maximum sustainable yield (MSY)–provide a scientific basis for developing conservation and management strategies for Indian Ocean yellowfin tuna.