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<p>Predicting the distribution of <i>Ornithodoros</i> ticks is essential for understanding the spatial dynamics of tick-borne disease risk under environmental change. We developed species-specific distribution models for <i>Ornithodoros coriaceus</i>, <i>Ornithodoros hermsi</i>, and <i>Ornithodoros parkeri</i> across California using an ensemble approach combining Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) and Random Forest (RF) algorithms. Habitat suitability was estimated under present conditions and future climate scenarios (2061–2080), and binary maps were generated using model-specific thresholds to quantify changes in suitable area. Projected responses to climate change differed markedly among species. Suitable habitat for <i>O. coriaceus</i> decreased from 60,312&#xa0;km² to 41,387&#xa0;km² (− 31.4%), while <i>O. hermsi</i> increased from 25,194&#xa0;km² to 30,390&#xa0;km² (+ 20.6%), and <i>O. parkeri</i> expanded from 34,625&#xa0;km² to 46,258&#xa0;km² (+ 33.6%). Environmental drivers varied across species but were consistently dominated by temperature- and precipitation-related variables, alongside elevation, highlighting distinct ecological niches and sensitivities to climatic gradients. Integration of MaxEnt and RF binary outputs allowed identification of consensus areas of suitability, reducing model-specific uncertainty and improving robustness of spatial predictions. County-level summaries revealed substantial heterogeneity in both current and future distributions, with northern and montane regions showing the greatest increases in suitability for <i>O. hermsi</i> and <i>O. parkeri</i>, while contractions of <i>O. coriaceus</i> were concentrated in lower-elevation areas.These results demonstrate that climate change is likely to reshape the spatial distribution of <i>Ornithodoros</i> species in divergent ways, with important implications for vector-borne disease risk. Species-specific modeling frameworks such as this provide a critical foundation for targeted surveillance and adaptive management strategies in California.</p>

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Species distribution modelling of Ornithodoros spp. in California with consideration of climate variation and identification of TBRF, EBA and ASFV vector–host interfaces

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年8月5日

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  • Carlos González-Crespo,
  • Hélène Jourdan-Pineau,
  • Laura Patterson,
  • Alda F. A. Pires,
  • Beatriz Martínez-López

摘要

Predicting the distribution of Ornithodoros ticks is essential for understanding the spatial dynamics of tick-borne disease risk under environmental change. We developed species-specific distribution models for Ornithodoros coriaceus, Ornithodoros hermsi, and Ornithodoros parkeri across California using an ensemble approach combining Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) and Random Forest (RF) algorithms. Habitat suitability was estimated under present conditions and future climate scenarios (2061–2080), and binary maps were generated using model-specific thresholds to quantify changes in suitable area. Projected responses to climate change differed markedly among species. Suitable habitat for O. coriaceus decreased from 60,312 km² to 41,387 km² (− 31.4%), while O. hermsi increased from 25,194 km² to 30,390 km² (+ 20.6%), and O. parkeri expanded from 34,625 km² to 46,258 km² (+ 33.6%). Environmental drivers varied across species but were consistently dominated by temperature- and precipitation-related variables, alongside elevation, highlighting distinct ecological niches and sensitivities to climatic gradients. Integration of MaxEnt and RF binary outputs allowed identification of consensus areas of suitability, reducing model-specific uncertainty and improving robustness of spatial predictions. County-level summaries revealed substantial heterogeneity in both current and future distributions, with northern and montane regions showing the greatest increases in suitability for O. hermsi and O. parkeri, while contractions of O. coriaceus were concentrated in lower-elevation areas.These results demonstrate that climate change is likely to reshape the spatial distribution of Ornithodoros species in divergent ways, with important implications for vector-borne disease risk. Species-specific modeling frameworks such as this provide a critical foundation for targeted surveillance and adaptive management strategies in California.