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<p>Observational data sparsity in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean results in lower forecast skill for atmospheric circulation over the Southern Hemisphere (SH) than the Northern Hemisphere. Additional Antarctic radiosonde observations at existing observation stations can enhance accurate forecasting of severe events over the SH; however, the number of daily radiosonde observations is limited, owing to financial and operational limitations. Using a data assimilation system, this study investigates the impact of hourly wind profiles from the PANSY radar at the Japanese Antarctic Syowa Station. Assimilation of PANSY data leads to differences in the initial atmospheric conditions for weather forecasts, even including extra radiosonde observations from the Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH) campaign in 2022. These differences in initial atmospheric condition persist in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. We show that Antarctic radar data with relatively high temporal resolution has an impact on the reproducibility of atmospheric basic state (wind speed, temperature and geopotential height) over the high latitudes and the prediction of atmospheric circulation and integrated water vapor associated with atmospheric rivers over the mid latitude in SH.</p>

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Impact of Antarctic radar on Southern Hemisphere atmospheric river reanalysis and forecast

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月11日

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  • Kazutoshi Sato,
  • Jun Inoue,
  • Akira Yamazaki,
  • Yoshihiro Tomikawa,
  • Kaoru Sato

摘要

Observational data sparsity in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean results in lower forecast skill for atmospheric circulation over the Southern Hemisphere (SH) than the Northern Hemisphere. Additional Antarctic radiosonde observations at existing observation stations can enhance accurate forecasting of severe events over the SH; however, the number of daily radiosonde observations is limited, owing to financial and operational limitations. Using a data assimilation system, this study investigates the impact of hourly wind profiles from the PANSY radar at the Japanese Antarctic Syowa Station. Assimilation of PANSY data leads to differences in the initial atmospheric conditions for weather forecasts, even including extra radiosonde observations from the Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH) campaign in 2022. These differences in initial atmospheric condition persist in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. We show that Antarctic radar data with relatively high temporal resolution has an impact on the reproducibility of atmospheric basic state (wind speed, temperature and geopotential height) over the high latitudes and the prediction of atmospheric circulation and integrated water vapor associated with atmospheric rivers over the mid latitude in SH.