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<p>We revisit the energy–growth–environment nexus in Saudi Arabia (1970–2023) and ask, for the first time in a single-country time-series setting, whether urbanisation and human capital moderate the energy–CO₂ elasticity. Within an augmented STIRPAT framework, we test moderation using orthogonalised interaction terms that remove mechanical multicollinearity, and we estimate the relationship with ARDL bounds testing, NARDL decomposition, Toda–Yamamoto causality, and FMOLS/DOLS/CCR. A stable long-run relationship is confirmed (F = 6.89; ECT = − 0.67). Energy consumption is the dominant driver of emissions (elasticity ≈ 0.94), while urbanisation and trade openness act as direct mitigating determinants. Crucially, the orthogonalised energy–urbanisation and energy–human-capital interactions are not statistically significant: once structural breaks and core covariates are included, urbanisation and human capital operate through direct channels rather than by bending the energy–emissions elasticity — a substantive null that contrasts with cross-country studies and constrains policy modelling. Causality is bidirectional between emissions and growth, and trade openness causes both emissions and energy use; the NARDL provides insufficient evidence to detect asymmetry, so the parsimonious linear specification is preferred for inference. For Saudi Arabia’s net-zero-2060 target, these results imply that decarbonising the energy mix is indispensable, while Vision 2030’s urban and human-capital investments yield direct emissions benefits.</p>

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Urbanisation and human capital shape Saudi Arabia’s energy–emissions nexus through direct rather than moderating channels

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月18日

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  • Sahar Abdo Mohamed Elsayed,
  • Uzma Khan,
  • Aarif Mohammad Khan

摘要

We revisit the energy–growth–environment nexus in Saudi Arabia (1970–2023) and ask, for the first time in a single-country time-series setting, whether urbanisation and human capital moderate the energy–CO₂ elasticity. Within an augmented STIRPAT framework, we test moderation using orthogonalised interaction terms that remove mechanical multicollinearity, and we estimate the relationship with ARDL bounds testing, NARDL decomposition, Toda–Yamamoto causality, and FMOLS/DOLS/CCR. A stable long-run relationship is confirmed (F = 6.89; ECT = − 0.67). Energy consumption is the dominant driver of emissions (elasticity ≈ 0.94), while urbanisation and trade openness act as direct mitigating determinants. Crucially, the orthogonalised energy–urbanisation and energy–human-capital interactions are not statistically significant: once structural breaks and core covariates are included, urbanisation and human capital operate through direct channels rather than by bending the energy–emissions elasticity — a substantive null that contrasts with cross-country studies and constrains policy modelling. Causality is bidirectional between emissions and growth, and trade openness causes both emissions and energy use; the NARDL provides insufficient evidence to detect asymmetry, so the parsimonious linear specification is preferred for inference. For Saudi Arabia’s net-zero-2060 target, these results imply that decarbonising the energy mix is indispensable, while Vision 2030’s urban and human-capital investments yield direct emissions benefits.