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<p>This study examines the key determinants of ship detention duration under Port State Control (PSC) within the Black Sea Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) region, comparing pre-pandemic and pandemic inspection outcomes. Using 756 PSC detention cases retrieved from the Black Sea Information System, a Tree-Augmented Naïve Bayesian Network (TAN) and Association Rule Mining (ARM) were applied to identify both probabilistic dependencies and frequent co-occurrence patterns. The TAN analysis revealed that PSC Authority exerted the strongest influence on detention duration, with its impact increasing notably during the pandemic. ISM Code-related deficiencies also became more critical, while traditional technical deficiencies such as Fire Safety and Life-Saving Appliances declined in significance. ARM results further highlighted that ISM non-compliance on older Ro-Ro vessels, were closely associated with detentions longer than two days in Russian and Romanian ports. These findings underline the necessity of authority-specific, risk-based inspection strategies and improved standardisation of ISM audits to minimise operational disruptions. This study is the first duration-focused analysis for the Black Sea MoU using an integrated TAN + ARM framework.</p>

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Uncovering the determinants of ship detention duration in the Black Sea Region: a hybrid Bayesian and association rule mining perspective

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月15日

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  • Erkan Çakır,
  • Burcu Çelik Maşalacı

摘要

This study examines the key determinants of ship detention duration under Port State Control (PSC) within the Black Sea Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) region, comparing pre-pandemic and pandemic inspection outcomes. Using 756 PSC detention cases retrieved from the Black Sea Information System, a Tree-Augmented Naïve Bayesian Network (TAN) and Association Rule Mining (ARM) were applied to identify both probabilistic dependencies and frequent co-occurrence patterns. The TAN analysis revealed that PSC Authority exerted the strongest influence on detention duration, with its impact increasing notably during the pandemic. ISM Code-related deficiencies also became more critical, while traditional technical deficiencies such as Fire Safety and Life-Saving Appliances declined in significance. ARM results further highlighted that ISM non-compliance on older Ro-Ro vessels, were closely associated with detentions longer than two days in Russian and Romanian ports. These findings underline the necessity of authority-specific, risk-based inspection strategies and improved standardisation of ISM audits to minimise operational disruptions. This study is the first duration-focused analysis for the Black Sea MoU using an integrated TAN + ARM framework.