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<p>Land use/cover change (LUCC) alters vegetation structure and carbon sequestration capacity, thereby reshaping regional carbon cycling. However, the mechanisms driving the spatial heterogeneity of carbon storage (CS) in rapidly urbanizing coastal regions remain insufficiently understood. In this study, the relationship between land use and CS was quantified using land-use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020 for the Chaoshan region. Future land-use patterns were simulated under three development scenarios using the PLUS model, CS dynamics were evaluated with the InVEST model, and the dominant drivers of CS spatial heterogeneity were identified using the Geographical Detector. The results indicate that between 2000 and 2020, artificial surfaces expanded significantly (889.23&#xa0;km²), while cultivated land decreased substantially (782.98&#xa0;km²), and wetlands nearly disappeared. Spatially, CS exhibited a pattern of low storage in the southeast and southwest and high storage in the central and north, a distribution primarily influenced by NDVI, DEM, and Slope. Notably, a strong interaction between DEM and NDVI (q = 0.62) highlights a critical terrain-vegetation synergy in shaping CS patterns. By 2030, CS is projected to decline under all three development scenarios, with the lowest reduction under the low-carbon development (LCD) scenario, emphasizing its significant advantage in mitigating carbon loss. This study proposes spatially targeted strategies integrating forest enhancement in high-carbon mountainous regions, compact urbanization with cropland protection in southeastern areas, and coastal-riparian wetland restoration, underpinned by carbon compensation mechanisms to balance development with ecological conservation.</p>

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Terrain-vegetation interactions regulate carbon storage heterogeneity in the rapidly urbanizing Chaoshan coastal region

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月7日

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  • Zili Xiong,
  • Song Yao,
  • Hongmei Liu

摘要

Land use/cover change (LUCC) alters vegetation structure and carbon sequestration capacity, thereby reshaping regional carbon cycling. However, the mechanisms driving the spatial heterogeneity of carbon storage (CS) in rapidly urbanizing coastal regions remain insufficiently understood. In this study, the relationship between land use and CS was quantified using land-use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020 for the Chaoshan region. Future land-use patterns were simulated under three development scenarios using the PLUS model, CS dynamics were evaluated with the InVEST model, and the dominant drivers of CS spatial heterogeneity were identified using the Geographical Detector. The results indicate that between 2000 and 2020, artificial surfaces expanded significantly (889.23 km²), while cultivated land decreased substantially (782.98 km²), and wetlands nearly disappeared. Spatially, CS exhibited a pattern of low storage in the southeast and southwest and high storage in the central and north, a distribution primarily influenced by NDVI, DEM, and Slope. Notably, a strong interaction between DEM and NDVI (q = 0.62) highlights a critical terrain-vegetation synergy in shaping CS patterns. By 2030, CS is projected to decline under all three development scenarios, with the lowest reduction under the low-carbon development (LCD) scenario, emphasizing its significant advantage in mitigating carbon loss. This study proposes spatially targeted strategies integrating forest enhancement in high-carbon mountainous regions, compact urbanization with cropland protection in southeastern areas, and coastal-riparian wetland restoration, underpinned by carbon compensation mechanisms to balance development with ecological conservation.