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<p>This study integrated field investigations with probabilistic models to comprehensively evaluate the distribution, spatiotemporal variations, and ecological risks of heavy metals (HMs) in the Northern Pearl River Estuary (NPRE). The results indicated medium-to-high pollution levels. Surface water was severely contaminated by Hg, Pb, and Cu, while sediments showed significant Hg enrichment. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) identified salinity and organic carbon as the critical drivers governing HM distribution. Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) quantitatively resolved three primary pollution sources: industrial discharges, natural and agricultural inputs, and mixed anthropogenic activities. Bioaccumulation followed a distinct taxonomic hierarchy (mollusks &gt; crustaceans &gt; fish) and was significantly more pronounced in the water column than in sediments. Specific species, notably <i>Crassostrea sikamea</i> and <i>Crassostrea hongkongensis</i>, exhibited significant accumulation of Zn and Cu. Notably, Cu and inorganic As (iAs) were identified as the primary drivers of health risk. Probabilistic assessments revealed that the consumption of certain fish and oysters (<i>Konosirus punctatus</i> and <i>Crassostrea sikamea</i>) poses measurable risks to children, necessitating dietary caution. These findings provide a scientific basis for pollution prevention and ecological restoration strategies in the NPRE.</p>

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Comprehensive assessment of the occurrence, temporal and spatial changes, and ecological risks of heavy metals in the Northern Pearl River Estuary, China

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月1日

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  • Zhuling Jin,
  • Bin Xiu,
  • Jiaodi Zhou,
  • Dongliang Lu,
  • Peng He,
  • Zhenjun Kang,
  • Riquan Liao,
  • Haifang Huang,
  • Jinzhou Du,
  • Jinfeng Lu

摘要

This study integrated field investigations with probabilistic models to comprehensively evaluate the distribution, spatiotemporal variations, and ecological risks of heavy metals (HMs) in the Northern Pearl River Estuary (NPRE). The results indicated medium-to-high pollution levels. Surface water was severely contaminated by Hg, Pb, and Cu, while sediments showed significant Hg enrichment. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) identified salinity and organic carbon as the critical drivers governing HM distribution. Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) quantitatively resolved three primary pollution sources: industrial discharges, natural and agricultural inputs, and mixed anthropogenic activities. Bioaccumulation followed a distinct taxonomic hierarchy (mollusks > crustaceans > fish) and was significantly more pronounced in the water column than in sediments. Specific species, notably Crassostrea sikamea and Crassostrea hongkongensis, exhibited significant accumulation of Zn and Cu. Notably, Cu and inorganic As (iAs) were identified as the primary drivers of health risk. Probabilistic assessments revealed that the consumption of certain fish and oysters (Konosirus punctatus and Crassostrea sikamea) poses measurable risks to children, necessitating dietary caution. These findings provide a scientific basis for pollution prevention and ecological restoration strategies in the NPRE.