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<p>Small Island Developing States (SIDS) such as Cabo Verde (CV) face persistent energy insecurity due to heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels and limited deployment of land-based renewables. This study develops a transferable, risk-informed multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework for ocean current energy site selection, integrating high-resolution hydrodynamic modeling, environmental constraints, techno-economic factors, and tropical cyclone (TC) exposure. Using a high-resolution ocean circulation model that resolves tidal and inter-island flow dynamics, we characterize the spatial and temporal variability of surface currents and associated power densities across CV. These resource layers are combined with depth, distance-to-coast, protected areas, shipping routes, and TC hazard fields within an MCDA structure supported by sensitivity analysis. Results show that the strongest and most persistent currents occur within the northwestern inter-island channels, where seasonal mean speeds exceed 0.7&#xa0;m/s and power densities surpass 200 W/m<sup>2</sup>, with 95th-percentile speeds above 2&#xa0;m/s. Several locations meet key feasibility thresholds with mean currents near or above 1&#xa0;m/s, suitable depths (10–20&#xa0;m), proximity to shore, and relatively low variability while also lying outside high-TC-risk zones, low wave conditions, and major maritime corridors. The proposed framework demonstrates how hazard-aware, multi-criteria evaluation can support resilient OCE planning in SIDS and is transferable to other cyclone-exposed coastal systems.</p>

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A risk-informed multicriteria framework for ocean current energy site selection for Small Island Developing States

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月27日

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  • Hafeez O. Oladejo,
  • Gaël Alory,
  • Rasheed B. Adesina,
  • Diana N. Bernstein,
  • Jonathan Gula

摘要

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) such as Cabo Verde (CV) face persistent energy insecurity due to heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels and limited deployment of land-based renewables. This study develops a transferable, risk-informed multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework for ocean current energy site selection, integrating high-resolution hydrodynamic modeling, environmental constraints, techno-economic factors, and tropical cyclone (TC) exposure. Using a high-resolution ocean circulation model that resolves tidal and inter-island flow dynamics, we characterize the spatial and temporal variability of surface currents and associated power densities across CV. These resource layers are combined with depth, distance-to-coast, protected areas, shipping routes, and TC hazard fields within an MCDA structure supported by sensitivity analysis. Results show that the strongest and most persistent currents occur within the northwestern inter-island channels, where seasonal mean speeds exceed 0.7 m/s and power densities surpass 200 W/m2, with 95th-percentile speeds above 2 m/s. Several locations meet key feasibility thresholds with mean currents near or above 1 m/s, suitable depths (10–20 m), proximity to shore, and relatively low variability while also lying outside high-TC-risk zones, low wave conditions, and major maritime corridors. The proposed framework demonstrates how hazard-aware, multi-criteria evaluation can support resilient OCE planning in SIDS and is transferable to other cyclone-exposed coastal systems.