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<p>The Western part of the East/Japan Sea (WES) has warmed rapidly in recent decades, yet the mechanisms of its recent reorganization remain unclear. Using 1990–2024 observations, we identify a likely winter sea surface temperature (SST) regime shift around 2015, supported by complementary non-parametric change-point and persistence diagnostics and by the persistence of positive anomalies thereafter. Before 2015, SST variability reflected a balance between atmospheric forcing and East Korea Warm Current (EKWC) transport; afterward, EKWC-related variability and a northward Kuroshio displacement became more prominent, concurrent with a meridional reorganization of the Aleutian Low. Despite stable chlorophyll-<i>a</i>, phytoplankton size structure shifted toward pico-dominance at the expense of nano-classes, consistent with enhanced stratification and potentially altered nutrient supply pathways. These results suggest that teleconnection-driven boundary-current variability may increasingly shape both physical and biological variability in this marginal sea, highlighting its role as a sentinel of basin-scale Pacific decadal variability and its relevance for inter-basin climate linkages and decadal prediction.</p>

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Teleconnection-driven winter sea surface temperature regime shift and ecosystem reorganization in the western part of the East/Japan Sea

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月27日

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  • Hae Kun Jung,
  • Chung Il Lee,
  • Hyo Keun Jang,
  • In-Seong Han,
  • Huitae Joo

摘要

The Western part of the East/Japan Sea (WES) has warmed rapidly in recent decades, yet the mechanisms of its recent reorganization remain unclear. Using 1990–2024 observations, we identify a likely winter sea surface temperature (SST) regime shift around 2015, supported by complementary non-parametric change-point and persistence diagnostics and by the persistence of positive anomalies thereafter. Before 2015, SST variability reflected a balance between atmospheric forcing and East Korea Warm Current (EKWC) transport; afterward, EKWC-related variability and a northward Kuroshio displacement became more prominent, concurrent with a meridional reorganization of the Aleutian Low. Despite stable chlorophyll-a, phytoplankton size structure shifted toward pico-dominance at the expense of nano-classes, consistent with enhanced stratification and potentially altered nutrient supply pathways. These results suggest that teleconnection-driven boundary-current variability may increasingly shape both physical and biological variability in this marginal sea, highlighting its role as a sentinel of basin-scale Pacific decadal variability and its relevance for inter-basin climate linkages and decadal prediction.