<p>This study investigates the impact of new quality productive forces (NQPF) on carbon emission reduction in China, with a particular focus on the mediating roles of industrial agglomeration effect (IAE) and energy intensity (EI). Using panel data covering 30 provincial-level regions in China over the period 2003–2023, we control for key confounding factors including urbanization, industrialization, industrial structure upgrading, human capital, and foreign direct investment to empirically examine the relationship between NQPF and carbon emission reduction as well as its underlying transmission mechanisms. The results indicate that NQPF exerts a significantly negative effect on carbon emissions, with this carbon reduction impact being particularly prominent in economically developed regions and eastern coastal areas of China. Further mediation analysis reveals that IAE and EI function as two critical pathways through which NQPF influences carbon emission reduction. Specifically, the enhancement of IAE reinforces the carbon reduction effect of NQPF, whereas an increase in EI weakens this effect. Overall, our findings highlight that the development of NQPF can serve as a long-term driving mechanism for effectively achieving carbon emission reduction targets, thereby providing valuable policy implications for advancing low-carbon transition and green sustainable development in China’s economy and society.</p>