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<p>Strategic scenarios support decision-making under uncertainty; however, existing Industry 4.0 (I4.0) research predominantly adopts technological perspectives and does not provide methodologies that integrate risk management into scenario development. This study addresses this gap by proposing a methodology for developing strategic scenarios for I4.0 adoption based on risk assessment and risk appetite. Following a Design Science Research approach, the study includes a systematic literature review (20 studies) to examine existing scenario development approaches in I4.0, which did not identify any methodologies incorporating risk management. This is complemented by a qualitative case study involving 15 experts from industrial and academic contexts. A structured risk analysis identified 35 risks across 9 categories, enabling the prioritization of key factors influencing digital transformation. The study results in the development of a validated methodological framework and four strategic scenarios derived from the interaction between risk levels and organizational risk appetite. The findings demonstrate how integrating risk management into scenario planning enhances strategic decision-making under uncertainty. This study contributes by addressing a critical gap in risk-based scenario methodologies for I4.0 and by proposing a novel framework that integrates risk management into strategic scenario development.</p>

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Designing strategic scenarios for the digital transition

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月14日

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  • Vítor Alcácer,
  • Alexandra Tenera,
  • Francisco Araújo,
  • Helena Carvalho,
  • Virgilio Cruz-Machado

摘要

Strategic scenarios support decision-making under uncertainty; however, existing Industry 4.0 (I4.0) research predominantly adopts technological perspectives and does not provide methodologies that integrate risk management into scenario development. This study addresses this gap by proposing a methodology for developing strategic scenarios for I4.0 adoption based on risk assessment and risk appetite. Following a Design Science Research approach, the study includes a systematic literature review (20 studies) to examine existing scenario development approaches in I4.0, which did not identify any methodologies incorporating risk management. This is complemented by a qualitative case study involving 15 experts from industrial and academic contexts. A structured risk analysis identified 35 risks across 9 categories, enabling the prioritization of key factors influencing digital transformation. The study results in the development of a validated methodological framework and four strategic scenarios derived from the interaction between risk levels and organizational risk appetite. The findings demonstrate how integrating risk management into scenario planning enhances strategic decision-making under uncertainty. This study contributes by addressing a critical gap in risk-based scenario methodologies for I4.0 and by proposing a novel framework that integrates risk management into strategic scenario development.