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<p>Understanding the coupled interactions among water resources, sediment processes, ecological restoration, and socio-economic development is critical for sustainable river basin management under changing environments, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. The Ningxia reach of the Yellow River Basin represents a strongly human-impacted system in arid/semi-arid area, where water scarcity, intensive regulation, and ecological vulnerability coexist. In this study, we develop an integrated water-sediment-ecology-socioeconomic (WSES) nexus framework based on System Dynamics to investigate long-term co-evolutionary processes and policy trade-offs in this region. The model is calibrated using long-term observational and statistical data from 2010 to 2021, and future simulations are conducted for the period 2022-2050 under combined scenarios.The model explicitly couples hydrological dynamics, sediment transport, ecological restoration measures, and socio-economic development, and is calibrated using long-term observational and statistical data. By combining afforestation and grassland restoration scenarios with SSPs-RCPs climate-socioeconomic pathways, we simulate system responses from 2010 to 2050. Results reveal pronounced nonlinear relationships and trade-offs between ecological benefits and water availability, identify threshold behaviors in water-sediment regulation, and demonstrate that high-emission pathways substantially amplify hydrological and environmental risks. Moderate ecological restoration (9% forest-grassland growth rate) under low-emission development pathways reduces sediment load by approximately 73% compared to the 3% restoration scenario, while maintaining a stable runoff range and supporting sustained economic growth, emerging as a more robust and adaptive strategy for balancing water security, sediment control, and economic growth.</p>

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Co-evolution and adaptive management of the water–sediment–ecology–socioeconomic nexus under climate-socioeconomic change

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月12日

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  • Tianhao Zhang,
  • Geng Niu,
  • Qiliang Yang,
  • Chunling Zhang,
  • Tianchi Duan,
  • Qingping Wu,
  • Genfa Chen,
  • Dan Xu,
  • Siqi Li,
  • Tian Cheng,
  • Xuefeng Sang,
  • Yong Zhao

摘要

Understanding the coupled interactions among water resources, sediment processes, ecological restoration, and socio-economic development is critical for sustainable river basin management under changing environments, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. The Ningxia reach of the Yellow River Basin represents a strongly human-impacted system in arid/semi-arid area, where water scarcity, intensive regulation, and ecological vulnerability coexist. In this study, we develop an integrated water-sediment-ecology-socioeconomic (WSES) nexus framework based on System Dynamics to investigate long-term co-evolutionary processes and policy trade-offs in this region. The model is calibrated using long-term observational and statistical data from 2010 to 2021, and future simulations are conducted for the period 2022-2050 under combined scenarios.The model explicitly couples hydrological dynamics, sediment transport, ecological restoration measures, and socio-economic development, and is calibrated using long-term observational and statistical data. By combining afforestation and grassland restoration scenarios with SSPs-RCPs climate-socioeconomic pathways, we simulate system responses from 2010 to 2050. Results reveal pronounced nonlinear relationships and trade-offs between ecological benefits and water availability, identify threshold behaviors in water-sediment regulation, and demonstrate that high-emission pathways substantially amplify hydrological and environmental risks. Moderate ecological restoration (9% forest-grassland growth rate) under low-emission development pathways reduces sediment load by approximately 73% compared to the 3% restoration scenario, while maintaining a stable runoff range and supporting sustained economic growth, emerging as a more robust and adaptive strategy for balancing water security, sediment control, and economic growth.