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<p>Early hospital readmission in multimorbid patients remains a major clinical challenge. Although risk stratification tools are widely used, predictive performance is often limited. The PROFUND index captures frailty, functional dependence, and social vulnerability, but its role in predicting 30-day readmission is unclear. In this prospective multicentre cohort study, multimorbid patients admitted to Internal Medicine and Geriatrics departments were followed after discharge. The primary outcome was unplanned 30-day readmission among patients surviving to 30 days. Models based on PROFUND components were developed using logistic regression and gradient boosting, including a calibrated ensemble model, and compared with LACE and HOSPITAL scores. Performance was assessed in an external validation cohort. Among 435 patients included in the readmission analysis, 14% were readmitted within 30 days. In external validation, discrimination remained modest (AUC 0.52–0.59). The ensemble XGBoost model achieved the highest AUC (0.59), followed by XGBoost (0.58), HOSPITAL (0.54), and LACE (0.52). Differences were incremental. SHAP analysis identified cognitive impairment, anaemia, advanced age, heart failure severity, functional dependence, and limited caregiver support as key contributors. Incorporating frailty, functional, and social vulnerability domains through PROFUND components resulted in only modest improvements in 30-day readmission prediction. Even with machine learning, discrimination remained limited. The observed performance likely reflects both the intrinsic complexity of short-term readmission and the constraints imposed by sample size and available predictors.</p>

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Machine learning using PROFUND components for 30-day readmission prediction in multimorbid patients: a prospective multicentre study

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月14日

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  • Amaia Pikatza-Huerga,
  • Aitor Almeida,
  • Raúl Quirós,
  • María José Legarreta,
  • Unai Zulaika,
  • Daniela Mestre,
  • Susana García-Gutiérrez

摘要

Early hospital readmission in multimorbid patients remains a major clinical challenge. Although risk stratification tools are widely used, predictive performance is often limited. The PROFUND index captures frailty, functional dependence, and social vulnerability, but its role in predicting 30-day readmission is unclear. In this prospective multicentre cohort study, multimorbid patients admitted to Internal Medicine and Geriatrics departments were followed after discharge. The primary outcome was unplanned 30-day readmission among patients surviving to 30 days. Models based on PROFUND components were developed using logistic regression and gradient boosting, including a calibrated ensemble model, and compared with LACE and HOSPITAL scores. Performance was assessed in an external validation cohort. Among 435 patients included in the readmission analysis, 14% were readmitted within 30 days. In external validation, discrimination remained modest (AUC 0.52–0.59). The ensemble XGBoost model achieved the highest AUC (0.59), followed by XGBoost (0.58), HOSPITAL (0.54), and LACE (0.52). Differences were incremental. SHAP analysis identified cognitive impairment, anaemia, advanced age, heart failure severity, functional dependence, and limited caregiver support as key contributors. Incorporating frailty, functional, and social vulnerability domains through PROFUND components resulted in only modest improvements in 30-day readmission prediction. Even with machine learning, discrimination remained limited. The observed performance likely reflects both the intrinsic complexity of short-term readmission and the constraints imposed by sample size and available predictors.