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<p>Qapqal Xibe Autonomous County is located in the central Yili Basin of Xinjiang. It possesses significant potential for geothermal resource development, but the lack of in-depth research on deep geothermal genetic mechanisms and refined resource evaluation restricts its large-scale utilization. Therefore, this paper integrates regional geological surveys, borehole thermometry, geophysical exploration, and hydrochemical and isotopic tracing to reveal the formation mechanism of the geothermal field. Furthermore, it quantitatively evaluates the resource potential and analyzes uncertainties by combining the volumetric method, analytical method, and Monte Carlo simulations. The results indicate that the shallow geothermal gradient is 2.2&#xa0;°C/100&#xa0;m, while the deep gradient increases to 3.8&#xa0;°C/100&#xa0;m. The Gagestai Fault and its secondary faults serve as dominant channels for deep thermal fluid migration. The Cretaceous Donggou Formation and the Jurassic Badaowan Formation constitute a dual-layer high-quality reservoir, with measured reservoir temperatures of 42.50&#xa0;°C and 91.25&#xa0;°C, respectively. Isotopic and hydrochemical analyses infer that the geothermal water mainly originates from atmospheric precipitation and snowmelt in mountainous areas. After long-distance deep circulation, cation exchange, and heating by the basement heat source, the fluid upwells along the faults to accumulate, forming a typical layered confined fault-controlled geothermal system. Resource evaluation, verified by Monte Carlo simulations, demonstrates that the volumetric method exhibits higher robustness at the current exploration stage. The total recoverable heat in the study area is 8.19 × 10<sup>16</sup>&#xa0;J, classifying it as a medium-sized geothermal field. Rational development of these resources could save approximately 2.75 × 10<sup>6</sup> tons of standard coal and reduce CO<sub>2</sub> emissions by about 7.315 × 10<sup>6</sup> tons. This study provides key parameters and a scientific basis for geothermal resource development in the Yili Basin, holding significant practical value for promoting the clean energy industry in Xinjiang and achieving the “dual carbon” goals.</p>

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Evaluation of geothermal reservoir characteristics and resource potential in Qapqal Xibe Autonomous County

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月28日

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  • Xiaowei Lu,
  • Zhilong Qi,
  • Zizhao Zhang,
  • Kai Chen,
  • Ying Xi,
  • Yalu Wang

摘要

Qapqal Xibe Autonomous County is located in the central Yili Basin of Xinjiang. It possesses significant potential for geothermal resource development, but the lack of in-depth research on deep geothermal genetic mechanisms and refined resource evaluation restricts its large-scale utilization. Therefore, this paper integrates regional geological surveys, borehole thermometry, geophysical exploration, and hydrochemical and isotopic tracing to reveal the formation mechanism of the geothermal field. Furthermore, it quantitatively evaluates the resource potential and analyzes uncertainties by combining the volumetric method, analytical method, and Monte Carlo simulations. The results indicate that the shallow geothermal gradient is 2.2 °C/100 m, while the deep gradient increases to 3.8 °C/100 m. The Gagestai Fault and its secondary faults serve as dominant channels for deep thermal fluid migration. The Cretaceous Donggou Formation and the Jurassic Badaowan Formation constitute a dual-layer high-quality reservoir, with measured reservoir temperatures of 42.50 °C and 91.25 °C, respectively. Isotopic and hydrochemical analyses infer that the geothermal water mainly originates from atmospheric precipitation and snowmelt in mountainous areas. After long-distance deep circulation, cation exchange, and heating by the basement heat source, the fluid upwells along the faults to accumulate, forming a typical layered confined fault-controlled geothermal system. Resource evaluation, verified by Monte Carlo simulations, demonstrates that the volumetric method exhibits higher robustness at the current exploration stage. The total recoverable heat in the study area is 8.19 × 1016 J, classifying it as a medium-sized geothermal field. Rational development of these resources could save approximately 2.75 × 106 tons of standard coal and reduce CO2 emissions by about 7.315 × 106 tons. This study provides key parameters and a scientific basis for geothermal resource development in the Yili Basin, holding significant practical value for promoting the clean energy industry in Xinjiang and achieving the “dual carbon” goals.