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<p>Sorghum and groundnuts are crucial for food security in semi-arid lowlands of Ethiopia; however, production is constrained by erratic rainfall and declining soil fertility. This study examined the performance of intercropping productivity, climate resilience, and resource-use efficiency using field trials and APSIM-NextGen modeling. A comprehensive analysis of long-term climate data revealed high interannual variability (CV&#xa0;=&#xa0;28%) and a statistically significant decreasing trend (Z<sub>MK</sub> = –&#xa0;2.243) with irregular monthly distributions. The correlation analysis showed that the positive effect of a delayed end of rainfall was only significant in the treatments with high nitrogen levels&#xa0;(r = 0.289). These climatic factors accounted for about a 17–33% loss of sorghum yield in monocropping, but intercropping increased land-use efficiency by &gt;&#xa0;20% and total system yield by &gt;&#xa0;18.75% under higher nitrogen (N) doses and planting densities. Model validation showed satisfactory performance for grain yield (nRMSE&#xa0;&lt;&#xa0;27%), root mean squared error (RMSE &lt;&#xa0;0.663 t/ha), index of agreement (IA&#xa0;&gt;&#xa0;0.87), and biomass (nRMSE&#xa0;&lt;&#xa0;26.93%, RMSE&#xa0;&lt;&#xa0;1.835 t/ha, and IA&#xa0;&gt;&#xa0;0.836), though vegetative traits (height and leaf number) were less accurately predicted. Sensitivity analysis confirmed that optimized N management and spatial arrangements mitigate rainfall-linked vulnerabilities. Consequently, APSIM-NextGen serves as a robust tool for designing climate-resilient agronomic strategies for Ethiopian smallholders. The model’s accuracy in biomass and grain yield provides robust decision support for developing appropriate fertilizer and planting density to stabilize yields and enhance climate resilience for smallholder farmers in semi-arid Ethiopia.</p>

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Modeling the role of planting density and fertilizer in reducing the negative effects of rainfall variability on sorghum production in eastern Ethiopia using APSIM

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月28日

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  • Addisu F. Ebbisa,
  • Nigussie Dechassa,
  • Zelalem Bekeko,
  • Feyera Liben

摘要

Sorghum and groundnuts are crucial for food security in semi-arid lowlands of Ethiopia; however, production is constrained by erratic rainfall and declining soil fertility. This study examined the performance of intercropping productivity, climate resilience, and resource-use efficiency using field trials and APSIM-NextGen modeling. A comprehensive analysis of long-term climate data revealed high interannual variability (CV = 28%) and a statistically significant decreasing trend (ZMK = – 2.243) with irregular monthly distributions. The correlation analysis showed that the positive effect of a delayed end of rainfall was only significant in the treatments with high nitrogen levels (r = 0.289). These climatic factors accounted for about a 17–33% loss of sorghum yield in monocropping, but intercropping increased land-use efficiency by > 20% and total system yield by > 18.75% under higher nitrogen (N) doses and planting densities. Model validation showed satisfactory performance for grain yield (nRMSE < 27%), root mean squared error (RMSE < 0.663 t/ha), index of agreement (IA > 0.87), and biomass (nRMSE < 26.93%, RMSE < 1.835 t/ha, and IA > 0.836), though vegetative traits (height and leaf number) were less accurately predicted. Sensitivity analysis confirmed that optimized N management and spatial arrangements mitigate rainfall-linked vulnerabilities. Consequently, APSIM-NextGen serves as a robust tool for designing climate-resilient agronomic strategies for Ethiopian smallholders. The model’s accuracy in biomass and grain yield provides robust decision support for developing appropriate fertilizer and planting density to stabilize yields and enhance climate resilience for smallholder farmers in semi-arid Ethiopia.