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<p>This study utilizes data on the number of medical consultations and hospital admissions from the Shanghai Statistical Yearbook and the Shanghai Health and Wellness Statistical Data for the period 2012–2022 to forecast healthcare service utilization in Shanghai from 2023 to 2028. It further analyzes the overall trends in medical service demand and provides evidence-based insights for the rational allocation of healthcare resources and the enhancement of healthcare delivery capacity. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was constructed using historical data from 2012 to 2022 to project the number of medical consultations and hospital admissions over the subsequent six years. The ARIMA model demonstrated a high degree of goodness of fit, with predicted values closely aligning with the observed data. Between 2012 and 2022, the number of medical consultations in Shanghai increased by 81.34%, while hospital admissions rose by 113.40%. The forecasting results indicate that the number of medical consultations is projected to reach 281.54&#xa0;million, 285.31&#xa0;million, 288.49&#xa0;million, 291.17&#xa0;million, 293.44&#xa0;million, and 295.35&#xa0;million, respectively, from 2023 to 2028. Correspondingly, hospital admissions are expected to increase to 4.68&#xa0;million, 4.90&#xa0;million, 5.11&#xa0;million, 5.32&#xa0;million, 5.52&#xa0;million, and 5.73&#xa0;million over the same period. Based on historical trends from 2012 to 2022, this study projects continued growth in medical service demand in Shanghai through 2028. Multiple factors are likely to influence future healthcare utilization. The findings suggest that demand will rise steadily, with increasing effectiveness of the tiered healthcare system and a gradual improvement in the proportion of patients seeking care at primary healthcare facilities. To address these trends, policymakers should enhance the efficiency of healthcare resource utilization and implement strategic reforms, including refining medical insurance policies, strengthening the training and development of healthcare professionals, promoting innovative Internet-based healthcare services, and establishing a multi-tiered integrated system of medical and elderly care. These measures are essential for advancing the tiered diagnosis and treatment system and fostering the integrated development of health and elderly care services.</p>

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Forecast analysis of Shanghai medical service demand based on ARIMA model

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月9日

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  • Ping Pan,
  • Ruixia Yan

摘要

This study utilizes data on the number of medical consultations and hospital admissions from the Shanghai Statistical Yearbook and the Shanghai Health and Wellness Statistical Data for the period 2012–2022 to forecast healthcare service utilization in Shanghai from 2023 to 2028. It further analyzes the overall trends in medical service demand and provides evidence-based insights for the rational allocation of healthcare resources and the enhancement of healthcare delivery capacity. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was constructed using historical data from 2012 to 2022 to project the number of medical consultations and hospital admissions over the subsequent six years. The ARIMA model demonstrated a high degree of goodness of fit, with predicted values closely aligning with the observed data. Between 2012 and 2022, the number of medical consultations in Shanghai increased by 81.34%, while hospital admissions rose by 113.40%. The forecasting results indicate that the number of medical consultations is projected to reach 281.54 million, 285.31 million, 288.49 million, 291.17 million, 293.44 million, and 295.35 million, respectively, from 2023 to 2028. Correspondingly, hospital admissions are expected to increase to 4.68 million, 4.90 million, 5.11 million, 5.32 million, 5.52 million, and 5.73 million over the same period. Based on historical trends from 2012 to 2022, this study projects continued growth in medical service demand in Shanghai through 2028. Multiple factors are likely to influence future healthcare utilization. The findings suggest that demand will rise steadily, with increasing effectiveness of the tiered healthcare system and a gradual improvement in the proportion of patients seeking care at primary healthcare facilities. To address these trends, policymakers should enhance the efficiency of healthcare resource utilization and implement strategic reforms, including refining medical insurance policies, strengthening the training and development of healthcare professionals, promoting innovative Internet-based healthcare services, and establishing a multi-tiered integrated system of medical and elderly care. These measures are essential for advancing the tiered diagnosis and treatment system and fostering the integrated development of health and elderly care services.