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<p>Floods are among the most frequent and destructive hydro-climatic hazards worldwide, causing severe damage to human life, infrastructure, and natural ecosystems. Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA) is a basic hydrologic analysis technique that estimates peak flood discharges and associated return periods, which are useful for an evidence-based understanding of flood risk and for flood mitigation planning. This study analyzed the Panchganga river basin in Maharashtra, India, known for recurring severe flood events due to intense monsoon rainfall and sediment-induced changes in river morphology. The analysis examines historical flood characteristics and forecasts potential flood magnitudes using the Gumbel Extreme Value Distribution and Log-Pearson Type III techniques. The Gumbel and Log-Pearson Type III distributions were selected due to their robustness, suitability for annual maximum flood series with moderate skewness, and continued relevance in design-oriented flood estimation for data-limited river basins. For this purpose, 43&#xa0;years (1979–2021) maximum flood discharge per year data obtained from the Central Water Commission (CWC) and Maharashtra Water Resources Department (MWRD) were used. Return periods for flood magnitudes were estimated at intervals of 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200&#xa0;years. The results indicate the highest recorded flood discharge of 4787.89 m<sup>3</sup>/s in 2019 and the lowest discharge of 725.26 m<sup>3</sup>/s in 2003. The 2-year flood event has a 50% possibility of occurrence in any year with average impacts, while severe flooding events are predicted at longer return periods, with discharge values exceeding the river’s carrying capacity. These findings will serve as a critical reference for policymakers and planners in formulating effective flood mitigation strategies, infrastructure resilience planning, and implementing early warning systems.</p>

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Flood frequency analysis of Panchganga river basin using Gumbel and Log-Pearson Type III models

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月9日

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  • Sandipan Das,
  • Amol Jarag,
  • Rohit Bandivadekar,
  • Pravin Parkar,
  • Ketan Bardaskar,
  • Shahista Inamdar

摘要

Floods are among the most frequent and destructive hydro-climatic hazards worldwide, causing severe damage to human life, infrastructure, and natural ecosystems. Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA) is a basic hydrologic analysis technique that estimates peak flood discharges and associated return periods, which are useful for an evidence-based understanding of flood risk and for flood mitigation planning. This study analyzed the Panchganga river basin in Maharashtra, India, known for recurring severe flood events due to intense monsoon rainfall and sediment-induced changes in river morphology. The analysis examines historical flood characteristics and forecasts potential flood magnitudes using the Gumbel Extreme Value Distribution and Log-Pearson Type III techniques. The Gumbel and Log-Pearson Type III distributions were selected due to their robustness, suitability for annual maximum flood series with moderate skewness, and continued relevance in design-oriented flood estimation for data-limited river basins. For this purpose, 43 years (1979–2021) maximum flood discharge per year data obtained from the Central Water Commission (CWC) and Maharashtra Water Resources Department (MWRD) were used. Return periods for flood magnitudes were estimated at intervals of 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200 years. The results indicate the highest recorded flood discharge of 4787.89 m3/s in 2019 and the lowest discharge of 725.26 m3/s in 2003. The 2-year flood event has a 50% possibility of occurrence in any year with average impacts, while severe flooding events are predicted at longer return periods, with discharge values exceeding the river’s carrying capacity. These findings will serve as a critical reference for policymakers and planners in formulating effective flood mitigation strategies, infrastructure resilience planning, and implementing early warning systems.