Scholarlink

<p>Spawning underpins fish stock regeneration. Here, we investigate climate effects on spawning phenology in Atlantic cod (<i>Gadus morhua</i>), a severely exploited species whose stocks are now also affected by climate change. For the first time, we model daily cod egg occurrences as a spawning proxy across the North Atlantic. With a concordance of 84% between our model and basin-scale observations, our results predict different climate change outcomes for western (eastern Newfoundland) and eastern (North Sea) stocks. In eastern Newfoundland where cod is at the centre of its thermal niche, a phenological shift in spawning was observed. In the warmer North Sea, such a phenological adjustment did not occur, leading to a substantial reduction in spawning. Our model explains fluctuations in the North Sea cod stock better than those in the Eastern Newfoundland stock, where unaccounted anthropogenic (overfishing) and environmental (trophodynamics) factors may have influenced cod abundance over the considered time series. Our results provide an improved understanding of how future climate change and other drivers interact in driving stock dynamics.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Climate-induced shifts in cod spawning phenology across the North Atlantic

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月18日

查看全文
  • Claire Pollet-Calderini,
  • Richard Kirby,
  • Jérôme Castant,
  • Mathéo Leroy,
  • Dominique Robert,
  • Grégory Beaugrand

摘要

Spawning underpins fish stock regeneration. Here, we investigate climate effects on spawning phenology in Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), a severely exploited species whose stocks are now also affected by climate change. For the first time, we model daily cod egg occurrences as a spawning proxy across the North Atlantic. With a concordance of 84% between our model and basin-scale observations, our results predict different climate change outcomes for western (eastern Newfoundland) and eastern (North Sea) stocks. In eastern Newfoundland where cod is at the centre of its thermal niche, a phenological shift in spawning was observed. In the warmer North Sea, such a phenological adjustment did not occur, leading to a substantial reduction in spawning. Our model explains fluctuations in the North Sea cod stock better than those in the Eastern Newfoundland stock, where unaccounted anthropogenic (overfishing) and environmental (trophodynamics) factors may have influenced cod abundance over the considered time series. Our results provide an improved understanding of how future climate change and other drivers interact in driving stock dynamics.