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<p>With existing buildings comprising 80% of projected 2050 building stock, effective retrofitting strategies are essential for meeting global sustainability targets. This study evaluated the energy performance of green roof systems, rooftop photovoltaic panels, and ASHRAE 90.1–2019 upgrades for a representative 250 m<sup>2</sup> office building in Abha, Saudi Arabia. EnergyPlus 9.5.0 was used to simulate four retrofitting scenarios. Monte Carlo simulation (1000 iterations) was applied to account for uncertainty in weather data (<InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\pm 5\%\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>), material properties (<InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\pm 10\%\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>), and operational parameters (<InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\pm 15\%\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>). Individual interventions reduced net annual energy consumption by 9.5% (green roof), 19.9% (PV), and 70.0% (ASHRAE), while the combined package reduced net annual energy consumption by 91.0%. The combined retrofitting approach achieved an NPV of 1,203,079 SAR and a payback period of 5.0 years, with PV degradation included in PV-derived savings. This study shows that combining passive and active retrofits with code-based efficiency measures can move existing buildings toward near-net-zero energy, defined in this study as a small positive annual net energy consumption after on-site photovoltaic generation is credited, with net annual energy consumption not exceeding 20 kWh/m<sup>2</sup> per year for the case building.</p>

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Achieving near-net-zero energy in hot climates through synergistic retrofit interventions and uncertainty quantification

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月12日

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  • Faizah Mohammed Bashir,
  • Ali Hussain Alhamami,
  • Eman Nasrallah,
  • Hela Ahmad Gnaba,
  • Yakubu Aminu Dodo,
  • Yohannes Mehari Andiye,
  • Matusal Lamaro Lagebo

摘要

With existing buildings comprising 80% of projected 2050 building stock, effective retrofitting strategies are essential for meeting global sustainability targets. This study evaluated the energy performance of green roof systems, rooftop photovoltaic panels, and ASHRAE 90.1–2019 upgrades for a representative 250 m2 office building in Abha, Saudi Arabia. EnergyPlus 9.5.0 was used to simulate four retrofitting scenarios. Monte Carlo simulation (1000 iterations) was applied to account for uncertainty in weather data ( \(\pm 5\%\) ), material properties ( \(\pm 10\%\) ), and operational parameters ( \(\pm 15\%\) ). Individual interventions reduced net annual energy consumption by 9.5% (green roof), 19.9% (PV), and 70.0% (ASHRAE), while the combined package reduced net annual energy consumption by 91.0%. The combined retrofitting approach achieved an NPV of 1,203,079 SAR and a payback period of 5.0 years, with PV degradation included in PV-derived savings. This study shows that combining passive and active retrofits with code-based efficiency measures can move existing buildings toward near-net-zero energy, defined in this study as a small positive annual net energy consumption after on-site photovoltaic generation is credited, with net annual energy consumption not exceeding 20 kWh/m2 per year for the case building.