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<p>Dust sharply degrades visibility in arid and semi-arid regions, yet operational forecasting remains challenged by near-surface process errors in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and the poor generalization of purely data-driven models. We present a physics-guided machine learning (PGML) framework that post-processes European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecasts to predict five ordinal visibility grades over the Kumtag Desert. A dust-lifecycle feature library (emission, vertical mixing, transport, wet scavenging) is coupled with an ordinal LightGBM architecture. On an independent test period, the model attains quadratic weighted kappa (QWK) of 0.26 (0–24&#xa0;h), 0.17 (24–48&#xa0;h), and 0.18 (48–72&#xa0;h), with mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.48–0.56; gains versus data-only baselines increase with forecast horizon. Ablation experiments show that physics priors can effectively improve visibility prediction accuracy—reducing MAE by up to 10% and sustaining QWK beyond 24&#xa0;h by constraining non-physical drift. Accordingly, the PGML visibility predictions show improved performance relative to data-only baselines. SHAP analysis reveals a forecast-horizon-dependent mechanistic shift from emission/surface-layer dynamics to stability-controlled vertical mixing, consistent with dust dynamics. The framework offers an interpretable, transferable paradigm for physics-constrained environmental forecasting.</p>

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A physics-guided machine learning framework for enhancing dust storm visibility prediction in arid and semi-arid regions

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月3日

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  • Chang Xu,
  • Henggang Zhang,
  • Kaiyue Luo,
  • Jie Liu,
  • Yang Shen,
  • Hongcai Qin,
  • Yunhao Qu,
  • Chenhui Zhu,
  • Zhen Han

摘要

Dust sharply degrades visibility in arid and semi-arid regions, yet operational forecasting remains challenged by near-surface process errors in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and the poor generalization of purely data-driven models. We present a physics-guided machine learning (PGML) framework that post-processes European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecasts to predict five ordinal visibility grades over the Kumtag Desert. A dust-lifecycle feature library (emission, vertical mixing, transport, wet scavenging) is coupled with an ordinal LightGBM architecture. On an independent test period, the model attains quadratic weighted kappa (QWK) of 0.26 (0–24 h), 0.17 (24–48 h), and 0.18 (48–72 h), with mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.48–0.56; gains versus data-only baselines increase with forecast horizon. Ablation experiments show that physics priors can effectively improve visibility prediction accuracy—reducing MAE by up to 10% and sustaining QWK beyond 24 h by constraining non-physical drift. Accordingly, the PGML visibility predictions show improved performance relative to data-only baselines. SHAP analysis reveals a forecast-horizon-dependent mechanistic shift from emission/surface-layer dynamics to stability-controlled vertical mixing, consistent with dust dynamics. The framework offers an interpretable, transferable paradigm for physics-constrained environmental forecasting.