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<p>The rhizome of <i>Smilax glabra</i> Roxb., known as <i>Smilacis glabrae Rhizoma</i>, is extensively used in Traditional Chinese Medicine for relieving dampness and other health issues. The growth patterns and geographical distribution of <i>S. glabra</i> are significantly influenced by ecological conditions. This study used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling approach in combination with the geographic information system (GIS) software (ArcMap) to evaluate and predict the influence of climate change on the geographical distribution of <i>S. glabra</i>. The potential suitable habitats under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP126 and SSP370) were forecast for two future timeframes (2041–2060 and 2061–2080) by analyzing species occurrence records and environmental factors. Jackknife method was employed to assess the significance of environmental variables, and those contributing ≥ 1.0% to the model were considered as major driving factors. <i>S. glabra</i> is widely distributed in the southern provincial regions of the Yangtze River Basin in China. Currently, the suitable habitat covers 1,755,900&#xa0;km<sup>2</sup>. In the predicted future climate scenarios, the suitable habitat area is projected to extend to a maximum of 1,915,400&#xa0;km<sup>2</sup>. The distribution of <i>S. glabra</i> is significantly influenced by rainfall, daily temperature variation, and soil clay composition. Moreover, under both the projected climate scenarios, the core of suitable habitats for <i>S. glabra</i> were predicted to migrate southward. Overall, our findings offer a scientific basis for developing conservation approaches and optimize their spatial distribution management of the genetic sources of <i>S. glabra</i>.</p>

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Predicting future habitat suitability of Smilax glabra under climate change scenarios

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月22日

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  • Xu Sun,
  • Junjie Guan,
  • Ling Meng,
  • Chun Wang,
  • Na Chen,
  • Tao Wei,
  • Shihai Xing

摘要

The rhizome of Smilax glabra Roxb., known as Smilacis glabrae Rhizoma, is extensively used in Traditional Chinese Medicine for relieving dampness and other health issues. The growth patterns and geographical distribution of S. glabra are significantly influenced by ecological conditions. This study used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling approach in combination with the geographic information system (GIS) software (ArcMap) to evaluate and predict the influence of climate change on the geographical distribution of S. glabra. The potential suitable habitats under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP126 and SSP370) were forecast for two future timeframes (2041–2060 and 2061–2080) by analyzing species occurrence records and environmental factors. Jackknife method was employed to assess the significance of environmental variables, and those contributing ≥ 1.0% to the model were considered as major driving factors. S. glabra is widely distributed in the southern provincial regions of the Yangtze River Basin in China. Currently, the suitable habitat covers 1,755,900 km2. In the predicted future climate scenarios, the suitable habitat area is projected to extend to a maximum of 1,915,400 km2. The distribution of S. glabra is significantly influenced by rainfall, daily temperature variation, and soil clay composition. Moreover, under both the projected climate scenarios, the core of suitable habitats for S. glabra were predicted to migrate southward. Overall, our findings offer a scientific basis for developing conservation approaches and optimize their spatial distribution management of the genetic sources of S. glabra.