<p>This paper proposed a delayed fractional-order SEIHR-M model incorporating media influence to investigate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Malaysia. By integrating fractional-order dynamics and time-delay media influence into a unified epidemic framework, this novel structure more accurately captures both memory effects and behavioral response lags in the context of COVID-19. Theoretical analysis verified the existence, non-negativity, and boundedness of the solutions, ensuring the biological feasibility of the model. The basic reproduction number <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="41598_2025_99389_Article_IEq1.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="20" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(R_0\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation> was derived using the next-generation matrix method, serving as a key metric for evaluating disease transmission and model stability. Furthermore, when <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="41598_2025_99389_Article_IEq2.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="51" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(R_0 &lt; 1\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable regardless of the value of the delay parameter <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="41598_2025_99389_Article_IEq3.gif" Format="GIF" Height="10" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="11" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\tau\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. When <InlineEquation ID="IEq4"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="41598_2025_99389_Article_IEq4.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="51" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(R_0 &gt; 1\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, the stability of the endemic equilibrium exhibits two scenarios: if <InlineEquation ID="IEq5"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="41598_2025_99389_Article_IEq5.gif" Format="GIF" Height="14" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="41" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\tau = 0\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, sufficient conditions for local asymptotic stability are provided; if <InlineEquation ID="IEq6"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="41598_2025_99389_Article_IEq6.gif" Format="GIF" Height="13" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="42" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\tau &gt; 0\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, there exists a critical delay <InlineEquation ID="IEq7"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="41598_2025_99389_Article_IEq7.gif" Format="GIF" Height="12" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="15" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\tau _0\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. The endemic equilibrium remains locally asymptotically stable for <InlineEquation ID="IEq8"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="41598_2025_99389_Article_IEq8.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="77" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(0&lt; \tau &lt; \tau _0\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation> but becomes unstable for <InlineEquation ID="IEq9"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="41598_2025_99389_Article_IEq9.gif" Format="GIF" Height="14" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="47" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\tau &gt; \tau _0\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, undergoing a Hopf bifurcation at <InlineEquation ID="IEq10"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="41598_2025_99389_Article_IEq10.gif" Format="GIF" Height="12" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="46" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\tau = \tau _0\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, leading to periodic oscillations. The numerical simulation results not only validate the theoretical analysis but also show that as the fractional-order parameter increases, the system exhibits more pronounced oscillations; furthermore, longer delay times facilitate the emergence of these oscillatory behaviors, making the epidemic more prone to recurrent and periodic fluctuations. By fitting the model with early COVID-19 data from Malaysia, the feasibility and applicability of the model are further validated, and the superior fitting performance of the fractional-order delay model compared to the corresponding integer-order model is highlighted. Finally, sensitivity analysis results show that media interventions have a significant impact on epidemic spread, further demonstrating that timely and effective information dissemination plays a crucial role in reducing the peak of infections and controlling the epidemic.</p>

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Modeling and analysis of a delayed fractional order COVID-19 SEIHRM model with media coverage in Malaysia

  • Rui Hu,
  • Muhamad Hifzhudin Noor Aziz,
  • Elayaraja Aruchunan,
  • Nur Anisah Mohamed

摘要

This paper proposed a delayed fractional-order SEIHR-M model incorporating media influence to investigate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Malaysia. By integrating fractional-order dynamics and time-delay media influence into a unified epidemic framework, this novel structure more accurately captures both memory effects and behavioral response lags in the context of COVID-19. Theoretical analysis verified the existence, non-negativity, and boundedness of the solutions, ensuring the biological feasibility of the model. The basic reproduction number \(R_0\) was derived using the next-generation matrix method, serving as a key metric for evaluating disease transmission and model stability. Furthermore, when \(R_0 < 1\) , the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable regardless of the value of the delay parameter \(\tau\) . When \(R_0 > 1\) , the stability of the endemic equilibrium exhibits two scenarios: if \(\tau = 0\) , sufficient conditions for local asymptotic stability are provided; if \(\tau > 0\) , there exists a critical delay \(\tau _0\) . The endemic equilibrium remains locally asymptotically stable for \(0< \tau < \tau _0\) but becomes unstable for \(\tau > \tau _0\) , undergoing a Hopf bifurcation at \(\tau = \tau _0\) , leading to periodic oscillations. The numerical simulation results not only validate the theoretical analysis but also show that as the fractional-order parameter increases, the system exhibits more pronounced oscillations; furthermore, longer delay times facilitate the emergence of these oscillatory behaviors, making the epidemic more prone to recurrent and periodic fluctuations. By fitting the model with early COVID-19 data from Malaysia, the feasibility and applicability of the model are further validated, and the superior fitting performance of the fractional-order delay model compared to the corresponding integer-order model is highlighted. Finally, sensitivity analysis results show that media interventions have a significant impact on epidemic spread, further demonstrating that timely and effective information dissemination plays a crucial role in reducing the peak of infections and controlling the epidemic.