<p>Differential equations-based epidemiological compartmental systems and deep neural networks-based artificial intelligence can effectively analyze and combat monkeypox (MPV) transmission with Poisson random measure noise into a stochastic SEIQR (susceptible, exposed, infected, quarantined, recovered) model human population and SEI (susceptible, exposed, infected) for rodent population. Compartmental models have estimates of parameter complications, whereas machine learning algorithms struggle to understand MPV’s progression and lack elucidation. This research introduces Levenberg Marquardt backpropagation neural networks (LMBNNS) in training, a new approach that combines compartmental frameworks with artificial neural networks (ANNs) to explain the complex mechanisms of MPV. Meanwhile, a model description proves the existence and uniqueness of a global positive solution. A threshold parameter is determined and employed to identify the factors that lead to infection in the general public. Furthermore, other criteria are developed to eliminate the infection within the entire population. The MPV is eliminated if <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="41598_2025_94086_Article_IEq1.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="55" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\mathbb {R}_{0\textrm{h}}<1\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, but continues if <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="41598_2025_94086_Article_IEq2.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="55" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\mathbb {R}_{0\textrm{h}}>1\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. The study depends on two functional scenarios to quantitatively clarify the theoretical results. An adapted dataset is generated employing the Adam algorithm to minimize the mean square error (MSE) by setting its data effectiveness to 81% for training, 9% for testing, and 10% for validation. The solver’s accuracy is validated by minimal absolute error and complementing responses to every hypothetical situation. In order to verify the adaptation’s reliability and precision, productivity is measured using the error histogram, changeover state, and prediction for addressing the MPV model. Visual representations are used to illustrate the investigation and compare results. Utilizing this hybrid approach, we want to increase our comprehension of disease propagation, strengthen forecasting competencies, and influence more efficient public health actions. The combination of stochastic processes and machine learning approaches creates a powerful tool for capturing the inherent uncertainties in infectious disease dynamics, as well as a more accurate framework for real-time epidemic prediction and prevention.</p>

Poisson random measure noise-induced coherence in epidemiological priors informed deep neural networks to identify the intensity of virus dynamics

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2025年5月17日

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Saima Rashid,
Ayesha Siddiqa,
Fekadu Tesgera Agama,
Nazeran Idrees,
Mohammed Shaaf Alharthi

摘要

Differential equations-based epidemiological compartmental systems and deep neural networks-based artificial intelligence can effectively analyze and combat monkeypox (MPV) transmission with Poisson random measure noise into a stochastic SEIQR (susceptible, exposed, infected, quarantined, recovered) model human population and SEI (susceptible, exposed, infected) for rodent population. Compartmental models have estimates of parameter complications, whereas machine learning algorithms struggle to understand MPV’s progression and lack elucidation. This research introduces Levenberg Marquardt backpropagation neural networks (LMBNNS) in training, a new approach that combines compartmental frameworks with artificial neural networks (ANNs) to explain the complex mechanisms of MPV. Meanwhile, a model description proves the existence and uniqueness of a global positive solution. A threshold parameter is determined and employed to identify the factors that lead to infection in the general public. Furthermore, other criteria are developed to eliminate the infection within the entire population. The MPV is eliminated if \(\mathbb {R}_{0\textrm{h}}<1\) , but continues if \(\mathbb {R}_{0\textrm{h}}>1\) . The study depends on two functional scenarios to quantitatively clarify the theoretical results. An adapted dataset is generated employing the Adam algorithm to minimize the mean square error (MSE) by setting its data effectiveness to 81% for training, 9% for testing, and 10% for validation. The solver’s accuracy is validated by minimal absolute error and complementing responses to every hypothetical situation. In order to verify the adaptation’s reliability and precision, productivity is measured using the error histogram, changeover state, and prediction for addressing the MPV model. Visual representations are used to illustrate the investigation and compare results. Utilizing this hybrid approach, we want to increase our comprehension of disease propagation, strengthen forecasting competencies, and influence more efficient public health actions. The combination of stochastic processes and machine learning approaches creates a powerful tool for capturing the inherent uncertainties in infectious disease dynamics, as well as a more accurate framework for real-time epidemic prediction and prevention.