Scholarlink

<p>This paper uses fractional integration methods to obtain new evidence on polar amplification. The adopted modelling framework is very general since it allows the differencing parameter to take any real value, including fractional ones, and provides useful information on both the short and the long run. The analysis is carried out using monthly temperature anomaly data for both the Arctic and the Antarctic, as well as the Northern and Southern Hemisphere, which have been obtained from the NOAA (National Center for Environmental Information) archive. The main findings can be summarised as follows. There is evidence of Arctic amplification, since the upward trend in the Arctic data is more pronounced compared to that in the Northern Hemisphere series, but not of Antarctic amplification, where the opposite holds. Also, the effects of forcings are more long-lived in the Arctic/Northern hemisphere than in the other pole/hemisphere. These results are robust to whether or not seasonality is explicitly modelled. In addition, temperature changes in the poles have bigger effects on those in the corresponding hemisphere if they occur in the Antarctic rather than in the Arctic.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Some new evidence using fractional integration about trends, breaks and persistence in polar amplification

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年3月11日

查看全文
  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale,
  • Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana,
  • Nieves Carmona-González

摘要

This paper uses fractional integration methods to obtain new evidence on polar amplification. The adopted modelling framework is very general since it allows the differencing parameter to take any real value, including fractional ones, and provides useful information on both the short and the long run. The analysis is carried out using monthly temperature anomaly data for both the Arctic and the Antarctic, as well as the Northern and Southern Hemisphere, which have been obtained from the NOAA (National Center for Environmental Information) archive. The main findings can be summarised as follows. There is evidence of Arctic amplification, since the upward trend in the Arctic data is more pronounced compared to that in the Northern Hemisphere series, but not of Antarctic amplification, where the opposite holds. Also, the effects of forcings are more long-lived in the Arctic/Northern hemisphere than in the other pole/hemisphere. These results are robust to whether or not seasonality is explicitly modelled. In addition, temperature changes in the poles have bigger effects on those in the corresponding hemisphere if they occur in the Antarctic rather than in the Arctic.