<p>Understanding the decision-making mechanisms of stakeholders in land use changes within wetland areas is critical for managing land resources effectively and mitigating conflicts. This study applies a game-theoretic approach to examine the strategic interactions among key stakeholders—managers, developers, and residents—within the Caohai National Nature Reserve (CNNR) in China. By integrating real data on land use changes, ecological quality indices, and economic incentives, this study identifies the driving forces behind stakeholder behavior and land use evolution from 2000 to 2020. The land use changes and ecological effects in the CNNR can be divided into two main stages: From 2000 to 2010, the primary direction of land use change was the conversion of grassland into construction land and farmland, resulting in the deterioration of ecological environment quality. From 2010 to 2020, the main direction of land use change shifted to the conversion of farmland into grassland and forest land, leading to an improvement in ecological environment quality. Game-theoretic analysis demonstrates that managers play a decisive role in shaping stakeholder strategies through regulatory mechanisms, such as land rent adjustments, penalties, subsidies, and ecological compensation. Stronger enforcement of penalties and incentives significantly enhances cooperative behavior among stakeholders, reducing land use conflicts and promoting ecological recovery. These findings emphasize the necessity of targeted governance strategies to align stakeholder interests and balance ecological conservation with socio-economic development. The insights from this study provide valuable guidance for policymakers and land managers in designing effective land use policies and improving conservation efforts in wetland-protected areas.</p>