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<p>Understanding the long-term dynamics of radiocesium (<sup>137</sup>Cs) in forests contaminated by the Fukushima nuclear accident requires determining when these dynamics reach a quasi-equilibrium state, in which the flux of <sup>137</sup>Cs between soil and trees becomes approximately balanced. In this study, we analyzed time-series variations from 2011 to 2020 in the total <sup>137</sup>Cs inventory and <sup>137</sup>Cs distribution in aboveground compartments (needles/leaves, branches, bark, sapwood, and heartwood). Time-series analysis using a dynamic linear model indicated that the decay-corrected total <sup>137</sup>Cs inventory (as of September 1, 2020) and its distribution in the aboveground compartments remained stable from 2017 onward, suggesting that a quasi-equilibrium state had been reached. Given this stability in both inventory and distribution, the aggregated transfer factor (<i>T</i><sub><i>ag</i></sub>)—defined as the <sup>137</sup>Cs activity concentration in aboveground tree tissues divided by the total <sup>137</sup>Cs inventory in soil—measured approximately 6 years after the Fukushima nuclear accident can be considered representative of the long-term transfer of <sup>137</sup>Cs from forest soil to trees. These findings on the stability of <sup>137</sup>Cs in forests provide valuable insights for validating the accuracy of models that predict long-term <sup>137</sup>Cs activity concentration in stem wood.</p>

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Decadal stability of radiocesium inventories and soil to tree transfer in forests affected by the Fukushima nuclear accident

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月7日

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  • Wataru Sakashita,
  • Naohiro Imamura,
  • Shinta Ohashi,
  • Masabumi Komatsu,
  • Masatake G. Araki,
  • Satoshi Saito,
  • Takuya Kajimoto,
  • Shoji Hashimoto,
  • Takuya Manaka,
  • Tadashi Sakata,
  • Yoshimi Ohmae,
  • Satoru Miura,
  • Yoshiki Shinomiya

摘要

Understanding the long-term dynamics of radiocesium (137Cs) in forests contaminated by the Fukushima nuclear accident requires determining when these dynamics reach a quasi-equilibrium state, in which the flux of 137Cs between soil and trees becomes approximately balanced. In this study, we analyzed time-series variations from 2011 to 2020 in the total 137Cs inventory and 137Cs distribution in aboveground compartments (needles/leaves, branches, bark, sapwood, and heartwood). Time-series analysis using a dynamic linear model indicated that the decay-corrected total 137Cs inventory (as of September 1, 2020) and its distribution in the aboveground compartments remained stable from 2017 onward, suggesting that a quasi-equilibrium state had been reached. Given this stability in both inventory and distribution, the aggregated transfer factor (Tag)—defined as the 137Cs activity concentration in aboveground tree tissues divided by the total 137Cs inventory in soil—measured approximately 6 years after the Fukushima nuclear accident can be considered representative of the long-term transfer of 137Cs from forest soil to trees. These findings on the stability of 137Cs in forests provide valuable insights for validating the accuracy of models that predict long-term 137Cs activity concentration in stem wood.