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<p>Recent studies have demonstrated that breast pathological complete response (pCR) can be accurately diagnosed preoperatively using image-guided needle biopsy after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC), underscoring the value of incorporating ypT stage into prediction models for axillary response (ypN0). Based on this evidence, we developed and externally validated a nomogram to predict ypN0 in patients with clinically node-positive (cN+) breast cancer treated with NAC. This retrospective, multicenter study included 609 patients with cN + breast cancer who underwent NAC followed by surgery. A nomogram was developed using a training cohort (n = 330) and validated in an independent cohort (n = 279). Diagnostic performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration plots, decision curve analysis (DCA), and positive predictive value (PPV). The nomogram incorporated five predictors: ypT stage, cN stage, hormone receptor status, HER2 status, and post-NAC cN stage. It showed strong discriminative ability, with bias-corrected AUCs of 0.858 in the training cohort and 0.855 in the validation cohort. Calibration and DCA confirmed good model performance. PPV exceeded 0.90 when the nomogram-predicted probability was ≥ 0.7 in both cohorts. This nomogram demonstrated high diagnostic accuracy for predicting ypN0 and may support the selection of candidates for axillary surgery de-escalation based on post-NAC biopsy findings. Prospective validation using biopsy-confirmed pCR is warranted. </p>

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Development and validation of a nomogram incorporating YpT stage for predicting ypN0 using multicenter data in clinically node-positive breast cancer

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月10日

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  • Hideo Shigematsu,
  • Shinsuke Sasada,
  • Junji Hashizume,
  • Tatsunari Sasada,
  • Shinji Ozaki,
  • Midori Noma,
  • Tomoyuki Yoshiyama,
  • Goda Noriko,
  • Ayumi Kawamata,
  • Akiko Emi,
  • Yuki Kaneko,
  • Keiko Kajitani,
  • Tomoko Itagaki,
  • Morihito Okada

摘要

Recent studies have demonstrated that breast pathological complete response (pCR) can be accurately diagnosed preoperatively using image-guided needle biopsy after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC), underscoring the value of incorporating ypT stage into prediction models for axillary response (ypN0). Based on this evidence, we developed and externally validated a nomogram to predict ypN0 in patients with clinically node-positive (cN+) breast cancer treated with NAC. This retrospective, multicenter study included 609 patients with cN + breast cancer who underwent NAC followed by surgery. A nomogram was developed using a training cohort (n = 330) and validated in an independent cohort (n = 279). Diagnostic performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration plots, decision curve analysis (DCA), and positive predictive value (PPV). The nomogram incorporated five predictors: ypT stage, cN stage, hormone receptor status, HER2 status, and post-NAC cN stage. It showed strong discriminative ability, with bias-corrected AUCs of 0.858 in the training cohort and 0.855 in the validation cohort. Calibration and DCA confirmed good model performance. PPV exceeded 0.90 when the nomogram-predicted probability was ≥ 0.7 in both cohorts. This nomogram demonstrated high diagnostic accuracy for predicting ypN0 and may support the selection of candidates for axillary surgery de-escalation based on post-NAC biopsy findings. Prospective validation using biopsy-confirmed pCR is warranted.